Coalition trouble

The bogey of political uncertainty has raised it head once again. With the Union cabinet calling Jayalalitha's bluff, it is finally decision time for the AIADMK leader. She has made brinkmanship her trademark, in a well-thought-out policy of keeping herself in the limelight, while leveraging to the hilt the BJP's need for her support. The cabinet's decision not to give in this time however puts a spoke in that gameplan. Either another face-saving formula will need to be worked out, or the AIADMK will withdraw support. The BJP's confidence leads one to believe that they can muster the necessary numbers, perhaps by eliciting the support of the BSP and the DMK. If that happens, it will be good for the Government, as it would have been able to dispense with its most capricious partner. For the AIADMK, everything depends on its support being crucial to the government, and bringing it down does not serve its interests. Whatever be the outcome of the current bout of uncertainty, the fact remains that whichevercombination of parties forms the Government will face exactly the same set of internal tensions as the present one. The Congress faces the unpleasant choice of letting the BJP continue in power or leading a similar rag-tag coalition. Any Government formed by the Congress will be hostage not merely to Jayalalitha's machinations but also to the ideological preoccupations of the left.

The uncertainty took its toll on the market on Monday. The budget is yet to be passed, and if the Government falls, the budget will be buried. Apart from its effect on the stockmarket, important reforms, like the insurance bill, or the new companies bill, will be pushed back into limbo. Immature coalition politics threatens once again to take its toll on the economy.

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