According to a research study by Investment Research & Information Services (IRIS), the average compounded growth rate in foodgrain production between financial year (FY) 91 and financial year 99 is 1.63 per cent and the corresponding increase in population is 1.79 per cent. If the trend in foodgrain production and population growth continues, there will always be a gap in supply of foodgrains.

According to estimates of ministry of agriculture the total foodgrain production for FY99 is expected to touch an all time high of 200.8 million tonnes, an increase of 4.4 per cent over the level of 192.4 million tonnes recorded in FY98.

However analysis of IRIS point out that this growth needs to viewed in context of a depressed production level of 192.43 million tonnes in FY98, when foodgrain production actually decreased by 3.5 per cent over theprevious year. Infact FY98 had witnessed the per capita availability of food grain falling to the lowest level of 200.7 kilograms.

The declining per capita availability of foodgrain is bound to continue as long as the growth in foodgrain production continues to remain below the rate of population growth. The IRIS study forecasts foodgrain availability for the years 2002 and 2007, taking into consideration the annualised compounded growth rates of foodgrain production and overall population from FY91, under two alternative scenarios.

Under first scenario, the estimated production level upto FY99 is considered. The average compounded annualised growth rate in foodgrain production between FY91 and FY99 is 1.63 per cent and the corresponding increase in population is 1.79 per cent.

If the trend in foodgrain production and population growth continues, foodgrain production at the end of the years 2002 and 2007 would be 210.80 kilograms and 228.60 kilograms respectively while per capita availability of 205kilograms and 203.50 kilograms, respectively.

Under second scenario, the estimates of FY99 are ignored since the growth rate of 4.3 per cent in foodgrain production in FY99 seems to be influenced more by the low base of FY98 rather than by a sustained pick-up in production.

Consequently, the compounded average growth rate in foodgrain production from FY91 to FY98 is lower at 1.25 per cent while population growth is marginally higher at 1.80 per cent.

As pointed out earlier, assuming that the same trends maintain, foodgrain production at the end of the years 2002 and 2007 would be 202.20 kilograms and 215.2 kilograms respectively while per capita availability of 196.30 kilograms and 191.10 kilograms respectively.

Thus under both the situations the per capita availability of foodgrain would be lower than the level of 208.40 kilograms recorded in FY91. This trend is alarming since a declining per capita availability of foodgrain, especially if continued for a protracted period of time, could erode theself-sufficiency in foodgrain which the country has achieved in hard way.