What does this mean so far as prospects for 1999 are concerned? The views differ from exporter to exporter. For instance, a spokesman of Indo Count Industries, a leading 100 per cent export-oriented enterprise says that even though the market is not good, it is stable. Though values are down, the volume is showing slight improvement. While many other spinning units are languishing, Indo Count is faring relatively better, thanks to itsclient-base and emphasis on quality. In order to cope with the demand from its clients, the company is expanding its capacity to 56,448 from 52,416 spindles. Wayback in 1991, the company had started off with 12,000 spindles and at present produces about 6,600 tonnes of cotton yarn per year. The company exports mostly to Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Mauritius.Since mid-1997 cotton yarn prices in the international markets have fallen, by 15 to 20 per cent. Therefore, spinners have to keep on improving their efficiency and quality. China and Pakistan are offering stiff competition in the overseas market. Turkey is creating havoc in the European markets where the quota system does not have an impact on it.

The spokesman is confident that those spinners who are quality-conscious and have the sustaining power, will survive the present recession. One can certainly hope for better prospects for 1999, since this recession has already been there for quite sometime. He, however, suggests that the government givesome incentives to yarn exporters. In this context he suggests that pre-shipment and post-shipment credit in local currency should be made available at cheaper rates. The government should also lay down some norms for loan under its Technological Upgradation Scheme (TUS) so that these funds are put to the best possible use.

A spokesman of Prerna Syntex, a 100 per cent export-oriented unit confirms that there are improvement in enquiries from Korea, Taiwan and Mauritius, but not in price realisations. For instance, combed yarn 30s fetches just $2.80 per kg compared to that earlier ($3.00).

In wake of the Indian currency's depreciation, x/30s combed variety can only fetch Rs 119 per kg compared to Rs 133 per kg earlier.

Sources feel that one can hope for better prospects after June 1999 as some of the overseas markets are without much stocks. On the whole volumes might be better in 1999 compared with those in 1998. However no improvement in prices can be predicted at present.

Some other spinners,however, prefer to keep their fingers crossed. According to them if the demand for yarn picks up, some spinners who have idled their capacity to a varying extent, might be induced to commission. Thus there can be more production and return of stagnancy. They further point out that in this context that Indonesia is at present operating at nearly 60 per cent capacity. It may step up production if the the improvement in offtake is sustainable. In India too many spinning units have closed down and many others have curtailed their production. They too may be prompted to revive their activity, if they find the going is good. One can say the same about European spinners who have curtailed their production in view of high inventories and reduced offtake.

One can not, therefore jump to any firm conclusion based on the feeble data available at present. If east Asian economies recover, there can certainly be a change for the better.

In the domestic market, the demand for yarn remains weak. Bhiwandi, the power loomcentre is affected by 30 per cent power cuts.