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The war in the Balkans holds several lessons for countries such as India. One of these is political-the fact that alleged human rights violations can be used as an excuse to attack and dismember a sovereign state. As India, China and Russia have pointed out, this doctrine, applied selectively, of course, poses a great threat to international stability. (It is another matter that the bombings have in fact exacerbated the humanitarian disaster, as NATO knew very well that it would do--"entirely predictable", was Nato general Wesley Clark's response). It follows from this that we need to have a credible deterrent to such military adventures, and a nuclear arsenal is one of the means towards developing such a deterrent.
Another lesson to be learnt is economic. Most comment has focussed on the Balkans as a powder keg of racial tensions waiting to explode. But economic reasons lie at the bottom of these divisions. The multi-ethnic republic that was Yugoslavia held together very well under Tito. GDP grew at anaverage of 6 per cent during 1960-1980. In 1980 Yugoslavia started economic reforms, with the result that the economy grew by 2.8 per cent during 1980-87. Thereafter, it was downhill all the way. Growth first became zero and then negative, all under the careful tutelage of the IMF, which saw to it that resources were diverted for servicing external debt. It imposed its structural adjustment mechanism on the country, with the result that, by 1990, almost a quarter of the work force, has been thrown out of their jobs. The economic disaster fanned ethnic divisions. A similar situation can be seen in Indonesia today, in the Muslim-Christian clashes. The lesson for multi-ethnic, secular states like India is clear--foreign debt, and economic reform, can be very dangerous. Not managed properly, they can tear apart a country.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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