Corporates expecting an above 5 per cent depreciation are narrowly outnumbered, but a approximately a fifth of those with a forex loan exposure expect a depreciation of more than 7 per cent: on a par with the current six-monthly annualised cover level.

The Mecklai poll, conducted between March 15 and 19 was done after briefing respondents over the phone, followed by seeking reponses to a detailed questionnaire on the rupee's fortunes over the next three, six and a year. Other qualitative details, like factors affecting the rupee were also ranked. Respondents numbered 450 covering all major industry segments across Ahemedabad, Bangalore,Baroda, Calcutta, Chennai, Cochin, Coimbatore, Delhi, Hyderabad, Indore, Mumbai and Pune.

As to 5 per cent depreciation in the spot-rupee by June'99, the view was a fifty-fifty one, but around a quarter still expect a more than 7 per cent fall in the next three months.

The bearish view on the rupee prevailing around budget time has also been replaced. To a query on whether the rupee will touch the 45 to a dollar mark by 2000, only 36.11 per cent of domestic corporates said "Yes", with 38.46 per cent of multi-national corporates and 33.33 per cent of FII/bank sharing a similar view.

Sentiment on the rupee's fortunes was evenly matched. While importers quoted the local currency at 42.99 in June'99, 43.57 in September'99 and 44.54 in March' 2000, exporters said 42.98, 43.59 and 44.51, says the Mecklai poll.

The state of the econony is seen as the biggest factor affecting the rupee value and 32.5 per cent said so with 29.1 per cent citing Indian politics. About 20.8 per cent of the respondents saidReserve Bank of India's policies will affect the rupee's future while 16.6 per cent and one per cent named global events and other reasons respectively. Among industry group's, the most bearish quote of 45.64 came from the leather sector while the most bullish one was by the gem sector, which also has high import content, says the Mecklai poll.