This crop will be larger than last year's, but the figure is still much less than the forecast of 70 to 71 lakh tonnes announced around February by various agencies in the edible oil sector, which had prompted farmers to make panic sales of the first crop.

The latest figure, worked out by experts from the Association with the help of agri-statistical department of Union agricultural minitry, was placed at the 20th All India convention on rabi oilseed crops organised by the All India Federation of Oil Industries & Trades Association in Delhi earlier this month.

In the last season, production was below 45 lakh tonnes and this caused an unprecedented scarcity of theedible oil followed by sky-high prices.

It is felt that the oil content in seeds will be at a good level this year in view of the bright sunlight during maturing time, so realisation of oil will be high.

Explaining the impact of the revised crop estimate, an industry official said mustard oil prices will not go below Rs 3400 per quintal (100kg) at the Calcutta wholesale market.

"In the retail segment, the prices will be around Rs 40 per kg," according to Satish Kumar Goyal, a director of Shrihari Ago-Indutries Ltd, Rajasthan. "The retail price may go up further if transport links are disturbed," he added.

Earlier, the oil industry had been expecting a crop of 71 lakh tonnes, the biggest ever. Consequently, prices had been expected to fall below Rs 2800 per quintal at the mandis of Rajasthan and to Rs 3000 per quintal at the Calcutta wholesale market. The retail price forecast was Rs 35 a kg.

According to Ashok Sethia, president of the Eastern India Oil Industries & Trade Association, when theseestimates were circulated among farmers, they began frantic sales of their crop. As a result, mustardseed prices nosedived to a low of Rs 1450 a quintal at Rajasthan's mandis during the first half of March, from around Rs 1600 a quintal.

Sethia said prices fell to a low of Rs 1550 per quintal in Calcutta. However, prices began to harden towards the end of the third week of March when the revised estimates became known.

Consequenltly, Sethia said, mustardseed prices are now at Rs 1600 a quintal in Rajasthan and Rs 1750 in West Bengal.

According to Sethia, farmers in Rajasthan have become cautious as they realised that the earlier forecast was incorrect and had only made them reduce their stocks. They are now releasing mustardseed in limited quantities.