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Thursday, March 25, 1999

Bond auctions seen at Rs 15,000 crore in April 

Santosh Menon  
Bombay, Mar 24: India's money market expects the central bank to auction up to Rs 15,000 crore of bonds next month when it kicks off the government's market borrowing programme for 1999/2000 (April-March), analysts said on Wednesday.

"We expect borrowings of around Rs 12,000-15,000 billion in April," Ashish Pitale, head of research at JP Morgan told Reuters.

The heavy volume should be absorbed by a market brimming with liquidity, allowing the government to borrow at lower coupons, analysts said.

"The ten-year cut-off yield could be around 12.05-12.10 per cent," MR Madhavan, analyst at ICICI Securities and Finance Co Ltd said.

In 1998-99, the borrowing rate for 10-year paper increased from 12.02 per cent at the year's start to 12.25 per cent at the last auction.

Finance minister Yashwant Sinha has budgeted gross borrowings of Rs 83,500.71 crore in 1999/2000. The government's gross borrowings this year crossed Rs 90,000 billion against a budgeted Rs 7,930.76 billion.

Analysts said the government andcentral bank would try to complete the bulk of that in the first half of the fiscal year when liquidity conditions were easier.

Pitale said he expected the government to come out with 2-3 issues including an issue of state government debt. Some dealers say the government could call a dual auction.

"There is some talk of a dual auction... a simultaneous issue of a medium term bond and a long term bond of smaller amounts," a dealer at a foreign brokerage said requesting anonymity.

"A large devolvement at the start of the borrowing programme could adversely affect sentiment. With this, even if there is a devolvement, the amounts can be kept small," the broker said.

Plentiful liquidity and tardy credit growth in April were likely to help banks' appetite for government debt.

Dealers expect liquidity inflows of over Rs 97,000 billion from coupon payments and bond and treasury bill redemptions. "The market will be able to absorb the borrowings in April," Madhavan said.

Copyright © 1999 Indian ExpressNewspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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