Currently, regional co-ordination committees routinely plan generation: backing down when faced with slack demand and rationalising supplies to cope with power shortages. Whether supplies are rationalised on the basis of hard-headed priorities is a moot question. Planning generation from available capacity is quite different from planning capacity creation.

The Ninth Plan assumes the base load demand to rise by 70,000 mw by 2002. Assuming 60 per cent plant-load factor, it has proposed new capacity addition of 112,000 mw. Actually, the new capacity target is 120,000 mw to take care of obsolescence of about 10 per cent of the existing capacity of80,000 mw.

Overplanning? Peak demand exceeds the base load by 30 per cent, and on occasion by 50 per cent! The problem is not just the daily demand fluctuation (high by day, low by night) but seasonal as well: agriculture plus industry, and agro-processing industries plus industry raise the peak load. The nature of the economy demands excess capacity. Yes, during periods of slack, power generation has to be backed down, and this, in turn, raises the average cost of power. CERC has to tackle this complex reality.