According to the paper, non-food credit offtake and investments in corporate paper did not signal any economic revival. The credit offtake pattern did not reveal any change in the broad trend observed during the past fiscal.

"This was a figure which was expected to provide one of the preliminary indications of an economic revival. Except for brief spurt during the months of September and October, there has been no significant change in trend; there has been no basis to expect an economic revival in the near furture," the paper said.

On an incremental basis (fiscal year to January 29) the credit-deposit ratio (incremental food andnon-food credit offtake/increment in deposit base) for banks has declined significanlty from 46.9 per cent in 1997-98 to 31.1 per cent. Most of the increment of the deposit base has been invested in sovereign paper, evident from the increase in the incremental investment-deposit ratio(investment in SLR securities/increase in deposit from 32.4 per cent in 1997-98 to 37.7 per cent, I Sec pointed out.

According to the report, the industry expects the gross governemnt borrowing has been budgeted at Rs 84,000 crore. However, the fiscal assumptions on tax collections as well as disinvestments are aggressive, and the total borrowing sould slip towards Rs 1,00,000 crore if the economy does not accelerate sharply.

The investment bank said the high growth in money suply this year will deter the RBI from taking an easier stance. The list of expectations in fiscal 1999-2000 includes: