Everyone in the Congress and the world know that insurance needs to be privatised and will be privatised. Murli Deora, the business-friendly Congress politician headed a panel that recommended privatisation with 26 per cent foreign equity. Yet there is a widespread belief, especially after BJP's Bihar bungle, that Sonia Gandhi's party will engineer some twist in the tale, and somehow force the government to shelve the bill yet again.

Politics knows no shame where posing is concerned, and the very fact of a general expectation that the major opposition party will be absolutely irresponsible about a vital bill at no major electoral cost must be very, very frustrating for those who dream of Indian economic progress.

The swearing-in of achief minister can still make so much difference to Indian business. Thousands of crores worth of alumina projects have got stuck in Orissa as Giridhar Gamango, the new chief minister, assumed office.

His predecessor, desperate to get the wheels of industry moving in the poverty-stricken state, literally blacklisted four NGOs last year, who he accused of inciting popular resentment against the projects. This helped the companies decide in favour of huge investments in the projects.

But the ink had hardly dried on the blueprints of Utkal Alumina, the Indal, Alcan and Norsk Hydro joint venture, and Kumarmangalam Birla-controlled Aditya Aluminium, when came a new chief minister, in whose constituency these corporations had chosen to locate their projects.

In fear of upsetting the electoral applecart, Gamango has chosen discretion as the better part of valour, and said no projects can be thrust on the people.

The basic principle of investment is the reduction of uncertainty. In 1999, the central issue inIndian business appears to be how to deal with wild fluctuations in policy and political moods, as well as the status of political connections of businessmen, and business nexus of politicians.

As the Maharashtra government chooses to drastically reduce the price of power (even as the Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh governments show tremendous appreciation of reality and choose to hike the prices of power), the evolution of a market for electrical power in the entire region has been set back by years. The Maharashtra government has distorted the pricing direction irreparably, and put severe doubts in the minds of future investors.

That is not all. There were those who were hoping to invest in Maharashtra over the next few years (although, given the eroding law-and-order and economic health of the state, their number must be dwindling), but after this measure, they will be reconsidering any business that involves the state government either as a partner or as a customer or client. Unfortunatelya number of core sector industries would count the state government as among top clients. The Maharashtra government is going to be virtually bankrupt as a result of this Rs 181-crore concession to farmers.

What has begun to happen is that, while in the early nineties opposition parties were sometimes playing spoilsports to major state government reform efforts, suddenly, some state governments have started taking retrograde steps themselves. Those in political power have started doubting the power of reforms to satisfy voters, and have returned to the populism that bought votes but destroyed value for 40 years in India. The days in early nineties when state governments were competing with each other to seem investment-friendly are virtually over.

Its much better when politicians bluntly ask for money, said an industrialist in the safe environs of his sound-proof chamber the other day. "You add on the sundries to the total cost, and be done with it---licences, NOCs, what have you," he said flicking aspeck of dust off his Armani tie.

Its worse, he said, echoing the feelings of almost any industrialist worth his salt, as well as all those interested in the general progress and well-being of the Indian economy, when politicians intervene in favour of the mythical figure of the "affected voter".

The obvious question to ask is: So what's new? Isn't it time, for God's sake, that we, and our politicians, came up with something new?