Economists who had already forecast a cut said Duisenberg's comments only increased the likelihood that the ECB would take off a quarter percentage point of its key short term rate, which is currently 3.0 per cent, once or even twice. But those who took Duisenberg at his word still believed the ECB would hold the line at 3.0 per cent, if only to prove that it would not succumb to political pressure.

On Monday and Tuesday Reuters asked 46 economists around the world to forecast the ECB's refinancing rate. About two thirds saw a cut within three months and a third saw no change. On Thursday the ECB met and decided tokeep the refi rate unchanged. But some economists detected a more dovish tone when Duisenberg expressed concern at the post-meeting news conference about the risk to growth in Euroland's economic output.

Reuters asked a random selection of the economists on Friday whether Duisenberg had persuaded them to change their forecasts. Only one out of 20 had, even then only marginally.

"For the first time they were saying they saw a downside risk to growth," said Benjamin Melman at Credit Lyonnais in Paris, who forecast a cut to 2.75 per cent in April. "Last time they said there were mixed signals and it wasn't clear. Now they have taken on board that growth in Italy and Germany is bad."

Thirteen respondents saw a 25-basis-point cut to 2.75 per cent this spring and two more forecast a 20-point cut. Roughly a third of them forecast the refi at 2.5 per cent by the end of the year, a third at 2.75 per cent and a third at 3.0.

Mark Cliffe, Chief European economist at ING Barings in London, saw a cut to 2.75 percent at the next ECB meeting later this month even though Duisenberg still officially described the ECB's monetary policy stance as neutral. "Duisenberg's comments indicated a distinct bias towards easing," he said.

Rosanna Maddalena of San Paolo IMI Bank believed the ECB would hold the line. "We see higher risks in the second half of a trim in light of Duisenberg's press conference," she said. But the likelihood of a cut remained below 50 per cent so the bank had kept its forecast at 3.0 per cent. Dieter Claus of NordLB in Hannover said everything depended on the euro zone's economic performance in the first quarter this year.

"If the development goes down further in Germany and other Euroland countries then I think there will be a decision to decrease the rate," he said. But he forecast the euro zone economy would pick up in the second half of this year and therefore the refi rate would stay at 3.0 per cent.

Many economists accept that the case for a cut, championed by German finance minister OskarLafontaine and his French counterpart Dominique Strauss-Kahn, is strong. The euro zone economy is weak and inflation nearly absent, notably in Germany.

On the other hand, the ECB has to show its independence in managing a currency which is less than three months old.

"The ECB must not cut because it has to be seen to resist political pressure," said Marc Touati of Banque Populaire in Paris. "There is a big risk in terms of credibility for the euro if they cut. It would be suicidal."