Washington, Feb 27: The US sanctions against India and Pakistan "have created such a snarl that even peace may be unable to untangle the knot," an American journal has said."Nuclear tensions between India and Pakistan may be easing, but the US remains stuck in the sanctions trap," the Journal of Commerce said on Friday.
"Problems with the sanctions law," it said, "emerged soon after both countries staged a series of nuclear tests in May. It quickly became clear that the mandatory curbs were so tough that they could only serve as a deterrent. No one knew how to apply them if testing actually took place," it said.
"The first thing that US officials found was that they had neglected to write implementing regulations for the sanctions law," it said adding "months of uncertainty followed as exporters, banks and multilateral lenders all wondered how the trade and finance penalties would affect them." "India and Pakistan did not know, either. As a result, the sanctions were ineffective as a deterrent andambiguous as a punishment.
Meanwhile, the Clinton administration struggled to craft a policy that would satisfy the law while giving diplomacy a chance to work," the journal said. Under the circumstances, it is remarkable that there has been any success at all. Deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott deserves credit for perseverance through eight rounds of talks with the two countries.
"Both have agreed to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), albeit with a host of conditions. There are also hopes for limits on fissile materials and possible talks on Kashmir," it said.
But what to do with the sanctions? Repeal is unlikely and could be unwise, even if peace prevails. Other budding nuclear powers could be encouraged, knowing they can test at no cost.
Congress has already granted the administration authority to waive economic penalties until October, but other provisions remain. "Bans on exports of defence articles and munitions list items are still mandatory. Export-import financing is alsobarred. Restrictions on dual-use exports are in place. A series of arms control steps might lead to lowering some sanctions, but the law makes a tit-for-tat blueprint for peace seem impossible," it said.
The Glenn Amendment, it notes, provides no conditions for relief. Since neither India nor Pakistan was recognised as a nuclear power when the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed, the sanctions must remain in effect permanently. "It is not even clear that total nuclear disarmament would stay the penalties under the law," it added.
The experience with the sanctions, says the journal, has also highlighted huge gaps in US export controls. Customs and enforcement officials have complained that they are unable to stop some nuclear materials bound for India, because commerce department rules do not cover items controlled by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The NRC has blamed the state department for blocking its plan to toughen its own export rules.
In turn, state has cited theadministration's decision not to alienate the two countries by placing them in an embargo category for nuclear materials.
The result is that controls are tough on some exports but soft on others that pose even greater concerns. "It is hard not to see the policy as the theatre of the absurd," it said. "If there is a lesson to be learned," says the journal, "It is that the United States should never go through this again. Unworkable sanctions are at least as big a problem for this country as for the targets of its wrath."At a minimum, sanctions should be flexible so that they may be modified as conditions change. Despite its miscues, the administration has also shown that it should be trusted with open-ended waiver authority on penalties, so that it can help negotiate a solution for the sub-continent, the journal said.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.