In line with other "financial instruments", Thoroughbreds fluctuatein value and the industry is cyclical in nature. Currently, in India supply exceeds demand (hardly surprising in the current economic scenario) and many potential racehorses find themselves without buyers. In depressed times, few remember the halcyon days of five or six years ago when anything on four legs was snapped up eagerly.

It was about a dozen years or so ago that the previous cycle of low prices was witnessed. Rather than sitting back and waiting for con- ditions to improve, at that time a group of breeders decided to be pro-active and mooted the introduction of a richly-endowed race for juveniles, restricted to those sold through the auction sale. The idea was that owners would be prepared to pay more for a horse if that horse was amongst a select few eligible for a special race.

Thus was born the Poonawalla Breeders Million, sponsored by the Pune-based Poonawalla Group, and first run in 1990. Although a sig- nificant chunk of the prize money is coughed up by the breeders, who enter their produce at an early stage, the sponsors have guaranteed the generous amount of Rs 45 lakh by way of total stakes, and lakhs more for promotion. With innovative marketing and a publicity blitz, they have ensured that the event attracts a crowd comparable to that for the McDowell Indian Derby.

The tenth running of the race is up for decision on Sunday and, from the hundreds of original entries, sixteen have held their ground and should line up to face the starter tomorrow afternoon. Past history indicates that favourites have often disappointed, although last year the best-supported runner, Indiscretion, did oblige.

One prime requirement is that the winners have come from runners with a record of having appeared in public at least twice prior to the big day. In other words, winning a competitive event like this one requires a modicum of experience and maturity. Potentially the best member of the 1996 crop will alas have to spend the afternoon in her stable, as she has not been permitted to run by the Stewards. This is Con- gratulations, whose wayward nature at her last two appearances has resulted in her being adjudged a danger to the other runners, and who has been prescribed a course of corrective measures which will take time.

That leaves a short list, from which the winner should emerge, con- sisting of Acrobat, Blue Ridge, Her Excellency and Star Concert. The first pair are highly-credentialled produce of the Usha Stud, and were conceived in Kentucky, regarded by many as the centre of the Thoroughbred universe. The latter pair are by one of the nation's leading stallions, Placerville, and have originated in all respects from the Poonawalla Estates Stud. As Acrobat has excelled in his preparatory work, the quartet could well finish in the (alphabeti- cal) order in which they have been listed.

Supporting action is modest for a big day. Just five square up for the Class II handicap, with all the runners holding the semblance of a chance. Put back to sprinting, Thundering Bay slammed her rivals last time but has incurred a big penalty for her temerity in scoring by almost seven lengths. Likewise, Quickdraw McGraw faces tougher copany than he has been used to, although he has the advantage of a significant pull in the weights. That leaves Sovereign Prince, who showed signs of revival last time, after an extended absence, as the runner who might provide the best value for money.

Eight have accepted to contest the Jasdanwalla Trophy for Class III horses. The fragile Rmildo hasn't been seen since Christmas Day, while Phrwaxshi has twice been a failed favourite. As there is never smoke without fire, one has to keep a watching brief. Meanwhile, Skyy's winning sequence was interrupted by the afore-mentioned Thun- dering Bay, but she looks set to resume her trophy hunt here. Only four clash in the Florina Stakes, and the race is best avoided. The other Class IV event has ten in contention over 1400 m., with the two "Nobles" coming off recent victories. Of these, Noble Chal- lenge has the necessary ingredients to show improvement and provided her rider elects to sit a bit closer to the pace than last time, she should be there at the finish.

Finally, although it is quixotic to programme two important events for three-year-olds on the same afternoon, the R.W.I.T.C. Ltd. has been doing so for years. The Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy (1000 m.), also for horses born in 1996, has seven in opposition. Intel has been processing her instructions quite effectively and should be able to hold off Table Dancing and Tils.