To achieve this, an advance warning system is a must. "The National Crop Forecasting Centre established by the government only recently is a significant step in this direction. Monitoring of essential commodity prices by the newly constituted high powered Price Monitoring Board for anticipating the need and scope for the market intervention is the second important step," says the Survey.

According to the Survey, the annual inflation in fiscal 1998-99, after peaking at 8.84 per cent (point to point) as on September 26, decelerated thereafter, reaching a low of 4.4 per cent on January 16, 1999. However, the 52-week average was 6.9 per cent. The annual inflation stood at 4.6 per cent as on January 30.

The Survey finds the general price level as much more stable despite the high andunprecedented volatility in the vegetable prices. It further observes "The under-current of inflationary pressure which was observed towards the end of the last fiscal year due particularly to the sharp rise in the prices of primary products, especially vegetables, fruits, oilseeds and pulses. Wholesale price of primary articles increased by 16.3 per cent and accounted for over 60 per cent rise of the annual inflation on 8.84 per cent by the last week of September 1998."

The manufactured product prices increased by 3.1 per cent and contributed 41.1 per cent to the annual inflation.

"At the time of peak inflation 8.84 per cent in end September," says the Survey, "the major share of the annual growth in inflation was contributed by food articles (47 per cent). The main culprit for the massive price rise in this group was vegetables whose price had increased by 136.6 per cent from a year ago. Prices of potato and onion were higher by 250.9 per cent and 409.6 per cent respectively as on September 26,1998."

Most increase was in the consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW), as the weight of food items is 57 per cent in CPI-IW as against a weight of 17 per cent in WPI.

On the onion price issue, the survey says, "Never before was the domestic price scene, especially in North India, dominated by just one, rather low weighted consumer item as onion."

There was a steep rise in the prices of edible oils in the current year. According to the survey, "It was mainly due to a significant drop in the domestic oilseed production in the current oil year, particularly in case of mustard and groundnut seeds and higher international oil prices because of South-East Asian economic crisis. Ban on sale of loose edible oils due to adulteration further pushed up prices of edible oils." However, the prices of sugar remained stable, ranging from Rs 14.50 to Rs 17 per kg during the current year in the four principal markets of the country-Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai.