Further, rumours of a bonus issue have been effectively squashed. There is a significant amount of speculative interest observed in the stock given the intra-exchange movement of volumes. This kind of speculative interest usually ensures a turnaround in the stock once the expectations are met i.e., on the announcement of results as speculators will seek an exit. But the turnaround has come a little earlier.

According to Priya Agarwal, investment analyst with Triumph Research, for FY 1998, the expectation is that profit-after-tax will spurt from Rs 11.5 crore earned in the first nine months to Rs 15.5 crore for the full year. On a relatively small equitybase of just Rs 8.75 crore, the stock trades at a leading price earning multiple of 53 times, (on an estimated earning per share of Rs 17.71). However on a year-on-year basis the expected growth is just 12 per cent in profit-after-tax, although revenues will continue to grow at 33 per cent. The anticipated growth rates, apart the huge premium on the stock, reflected a strong market bias in favour of a bonus issue. Some speculators felt that the company was embarking on a new era of growth and, hence, a bonus issue was justified.

While analysts agree expect a superb performance from Thomas Cook, they are not unanimous in anticipating any issue of bonus shares. "Although Thomas Cook has been very liberal in announcing bonus issues in the past, it is unlikely that it will do so this time,'' says Agarwal. Analysts themselves have been bullish on the stock for the past six months, owing to some changes effected in the scope and scale of its business. One, there has been a change in the top management toreinvigorate the business. Two, the company has broken away from its traditional role of a tour operator and is repositioning itself as a travel management company. To that end, it has added a number of value-added products like an international credit card for Indian travellers and currency dispensers at tourist destinations as part of its service portfolio. Three, Thomas Cook is on the active look out for domestic acquisitions to step up its growth rates. Last, Thomas Cook has expanded its operations to a few international tourist destinations like Mauritius, Seychelles and the Saarc countries, in a joint venture with its parent company. There is a possibility that the parent company's operations in these countries will be consolidated within the joint venture.

MTNL's outstandings send mixed signals: The outstanding figures for MTNL continue to display a bearish trend. And the balance of stock is moving into weaker hands, as funds are known to be unloading the stock in large volumes. But at thesame time, the outstanding buyers have not declined by much. The outstanding position in the stock has declined further to Rs 55 crore, from Rs 58 crore.

But the badla rates for MTNL tell a slightly different story. At one point during badla trading on Saturday, the badla charge for MTNL hit a peak price of Rs 7, which yielded an outstanding 160 per cent return per annum, against the hawala rate of Rs 170.

This reflected the high degree of risk being attached to the stock at this price. However, the average charge for carrying forward MTNL settled down to 23.71 per cent per annum. Needless to say, the stock turned out to be very weak during trading on Monday. The outstanding positions now not only carries a high holding cost, but also carries a very high probability of prices falling as foreign institutions continue to sell. This should ensure a lot of unloading from speculators in the coming days, as there are hardly any short sellers in the stock. There is unlikely to be much covering to prop up prices.