Exporters of soyameal, who had enjoyed a peak price of around $310 in mid-1997, are feeling squeezed because of two reasons: First, increasing supplies of soyabeans both from soyabean meal producing countries, like India, Brazil, Argentina and the USA. Second, uncleared and therefore, rising stocks of soyameal in most of these countries.

Further, the seven south-east Asian countries reduced soyabean imports by a combined 4-5 per cent from the preceding season in October-September 1997-98 and of soyabean meal soyabean meal imports by 6-7 per cent. Consequently, imports of soyabeans and soyabean meal calculated on a meal basis declined by more than 700,000 tonne last season.

During the nine-month period to December 1998, total exports of deoiled cakes wasplaced at 19.95 lakh tonne, down around 27 per cent from 26.83 lakh tonne exported during the same period last year.

Even when exports of soyameal was slightly higher at 14.53 lakh tonne from 13.92 lakh tonne last year, exports of all other deoiled cakes has been drastically lower during this period.

After they declined till July last year, soyameal exports were rising till November last when it peaked (last season) to 3.29 lakh tonne against 2.20 lakh tonne in November 1997. In December 1998, they once again declined to 5.16 lakh tonne, down from 6.45 lakh tonne in December 1997.

On Wednesday, Pakistan announced hiking of the import duty on soyameal to 35 per cent from 10 per cent earlier. The hike was said to be in retaliation of India hiking the import duty in December last on sugar to 25 per cent from five per cent earlier to safeguard local sugar industry that complained of surging sugar imports, primarily from Pakistan.

Industry sources rule out any adverse impact of the hike in import duty byPakistan, for in the overall basket of oilmeal exports from India share of Pakistan is very small.

This season, India's soya crop at around 55 lakh tonne will be higher from around 48 lakh tonne last year, said All India Cottonseed Crushers' Association (AICOSCA) vice chairman Sandeep Bajoria, who is also on the board of the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA), the de-facto nodal agency for edible oils and oilseeds industry.

According to Bajoria, international prices of soyameal has plunged mainly on two counts. First, there is excess of production of almost all oilseeds in the oilseeds producing countries.

Second, the continued financial crisis in the south east Asian region has not seen any improvement in the overall offtake of oilmeals.

"Breakthroughs in overall seed productivity has resulted in excess oilseed production almost everywhere," Bajoria said. "This situation is likely to reflect in lower seed prices, and if this continues, we wonder if the farmers would continue sowingoilseeds."

According to OilWorld, the leading weekly on global edible oilseed complex, the increase in world soyabean meal supplies in 1998-99 will again be considerable at an estimated 5.5 million tonne compared to the boost of 8.3 million tonne registered last season. Total imports of 12 oilmeals are estimated to increase sharply by around four million tonne in 1998-99.Said OilWorld survey: "The overall increase is stronger than we had anticipated earlier since larger inventories have apparently accumulated early this season and also because of crushings so far have turned out higher than expected.

Further, world exports of soyabean meal are seen increasing sharply by 3.25 million tonne from a year ago in July December 1998. This boost in shipments was favoured by the very attractive prices. Brazilian soya pellets were offered at an average of $160 in August and September, but are still $100 lower than 12 months ago. Soyabean meal exports benefited from the tighter supplies of most other oilmeals, whichaccording to Oilworld, are estimated to decline by a combined 1.14 million tonne in July to December 1999.India contributed to the boost in export supplies. Soyabean meal output was stepped up by an estimated 0.8 million tonne in 1997-98 and prospects are currently favourable for a further increase of 0.5 million tonne to a record 4.1 million tonne this season.

India's export prospects are frequently questioned by quality concerns, but if demand in the neighbouring countries recovers, India's soyabean meal exports could reach 3.0 million tonne this season against 2.7 million tonne a year ago.

In the second half of this season soyabean meal will face more competition from other oilmeals due to the prospective increases in supplies, feels Oilworld. During April to September 1999, total oilmeal exports are likely to rise by 2.2 million tonne; sizeable increases are seen in fish meal by 0.3 million tones, rapeseed meal 0.4 million tonne, sunflower meal 0.2-0.3 million tonne.

Lastly, the steep increase inthe production of soyameal could not be disposed off fully during the last quarter of 1998.Consequently, soyabean meal stocks have increased sizably worldwide. As of end-December 1998, it is estimated that a record of a combined 1.86 million tonne in the USA, Argentina and Brazil,up by almost 0.6 million tonne from one and 0.46 million tonne two year ago.