This is the result of the total agricultural production during 1998-99 which is seen moving up by 1.5 per cent against minus 4.5 per cent recorded in 1997-98. Total foodgrain production, on the other hand, is seen marginally up by around 0.3 per cent against last year's minus 2.7 per cent.

The last year's negative agricultural production against massive jump of 9.6 per cent in the domestic agricultural production in 1996-97 is seen as the cause of decline in the foodgrain availability during 1998-99.

According to CMIE's latest survey on Indian agriculture, the kharif foodgrain production for the 1998-99, is estimated to be 100.3 million tonne, marginally lower than 101.4 million tonne in 1997-98 and 104.1 milliontonne in 1996-97.

The 1998-99's rabi production at 93.5 million tonne is seen higher that 91.7 million tonne in 1997-98, but considerably lower than peak of 95.3 million tonne of 1996-97.

Oilseeds production during 1998-99 is likely to marginally higher at 24.5 million tonne against 24.3 million tonne last year, but lower than 25 million tonne in 1996-97.

Sugarcane production, says the CMIE report, during 1998-99 is likely to zoom at 270.0 million tonne, from 262.2 million tonne last year. However, this is likely to be over six million tonne lower than 277.3 million tonne achieved in 1996-97.

Sectorwise study

RICE: Rice production during kharif 1998 is not expected to rise above 70 million tonne compared to the previous year's kharif output of 71.9 million tonne.

Heavy rainfall and flooding in the northern plains, in the delta districts of Andhra Pradesh and northern districts of West Bengal damaged some part of the crop in several states.

Favourable reports of `the samba' (winter kharif)crop have been received during January from the entire state of Tamil Nadu.

According to CMIE, overall rice production in the country is likely to touch 81 million tonne, lower than 82.1 million tonne last year.

WHEAT: According to Ministry of Agriculture, the area under wheat cultivation in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana had increased significantly over the previous year. In Punjab, the cropped area had reportedly increased to 33 lakh hectare from 30 lah hectare. Acreage had increased by four lakh hectare to 22.5 lakh hectare in Haryana and from 78 to 81 lakh hectare in Uttar Pradesh.

The minister of state for agriculture was reported to have estimated a wheat harvest of 67 million tonne as compared to an estimated 63.5 million tonne in the previous year. The official estimate of the 1997-98 rabi crop was earlier at 66.1 million tonne. The CMIE has estimated the 1998-99 wheat crop at 68 million tonne.

COARSE CEREALS

The CMIE's estimates of bajra and maize for 1998-99 are at 6.8 milliontonne and 10.8 million tonne, down by 11 per cent and almost three per cent respectively fromt their production in 1997-98.The crop Weather Watch Group of the Union ministry of agriculture was reported to have estimated kharif pulses higher at 5.61 million tonne, compared with 4.43 million tonne in 1997-98 and 5.53 million tonne in 1996-97. The CMIE estimates of kharif pulses for 1998 stands at 5.4 million tonne.

TUR: Tur is expected to increase by half a million tonne, while other pulses including moong, urad and masur, are expected to increase by 0.4 million tonne over the 1997 kharif output. But output of kharif pulses is still expected to be below the 1996-97 level of 5.5 million tonne.

Rajasthan the second highest grap producing state after Madhya Pradesh and contributing nearly 20 per cent of the total production of gram in the country, is estimated by the state agriculture department, to be poised for a gram production of about 17 lakh tonne in 1998-99 rabi season, compared with 15.3 lakh tonne in1997-98.

The CMIE has estimated gram output at 58 lakh tonne, as against 62 lakh tonne in the previous year. The wholesale prices of gram and arhar in the Hapur market declined by 14 per cent and 17.6 per cent respectively over the previous month. Gram prices had not started declining till March 1998 during the previous year. Therefore, the average price for January 1999 compares favourably with the price a year ago. In the cas of tur, prices had risen very sharply during 1998 in the context of a bad crop. They had touched a high of nearly Rs 2,500 a quintal in October. Therefore, despite a decrease of over 30 per cent since then, prices are still higher than in January 1998.OILSEEDS: The CMIE estimate puts total oilseeds' output at 24.5 million tonne, a marginal 0.8 per cent over the previous year's output.

Groundnut production is estimated to be marginally lower at eight million tonne, compared with 8.4 million tonne estimated for the previous year. Soyabean production for 1998-99 is expected to bemaintained at the previous year's level of 6.5 million tonne. Production in Maharashtra was reported to have touched an all time high during 1998-99 season, according to officials of the state agriculture department. Soyabean production in the state was estimated at a record high of 13.5 lakh tonne.

Mustard production was expected to exceed 6.4 million tonne. This estimate of the ministry of agriculture was seconded by the food ministry as well. The CMIE has estimated that rabi rapeseed mustard production in 1998-99 will be 6.2 million tonne, in line with the production of 1997-98. Sesamum and sunflower output were reported to be below expectations during kharif 1998.