Mumbai, Feb 2: The stock market is expected to witness a sharp drop in prices in the short-term, though analysts see a revival in the medium-term if the AB Vajpayee government falls. ``By and large we are not much concerned about who runs the government. What we look forward to is a strong and stable government which can take tough economic decision,' said S Subramanian, director, head of research, Warburg Dillon Read Securities. ``Political uncertainty will lead operators to cut long positions causing the market to fall sharply in the short-term,'' said Sunil Shah, director, Evergreen securities. Market participants see the chances of the government falling greater than its survival in the crisis. In the event of the government falling, the volatility in the market is expected to continue for the next 25 days, i.e, till the time for next parliamentary session.
``We are going to witness a lot of uncertainty in the next couple of weeks whether the government falls or stays. But in the medium-term, themarket should move up from the current levels,'' said the head of a leading broking house.
A theory doing the rounds in the market has it that if the government falls and if it leads to a mid-term poll, then its impact on the stock market would be positive in the medium-term. It is based on the assumption that the Congress party would force a mid-term poll in which they have a better chance to emerge with a stand-alone majority or something nearer to absolute majority. The market feels that the Congress may be able to repeat its stunning performance in the recently concluded state assembly elections on a national level.
Those who see a brighter side to the fall of the BJP government say that if the present government is to present the budget, the allies will not allow it to take the tough decisions on the economic front that the market is looking forward to.
Top on the demand list for the revival of the market is drastic measures to narrow the fiscal deficit and speedier privatisation. On both thesecounts, it feels the current government would find it difficult to carry them out due to growing opposition to any such moves from within the BJP as well as from its allies.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.