1998-99 cocoa output seen in deficit :The 1998-99 cocoa season could produce a 30,000-50,000 tonne output deficit, Merrill Lynch said in its latest commodity research report. The report said: "The latest data shows year-to-date arrivals are now lagging year-ago levels by 11,000 tonnes...by the end of the main crop, the spread could be as wide as 30,000-50,000 tonnes." The International Cocoa Organisation had previously forecast a deficit of 70,000 tonnes for the same period on a projected output of 2.79 million tonnes of cocoa. World production would struggle to keep pace with usage, which is estimated to grow by at least one percent this season, the Merrill Lynch report added. Liffe cocoa prices are hovering just clear of life-of-contract lows amid subdued demand. Both the March and May futures contracts fell to fresh lows at 888 and 907 pounds per tonne respectively in early Monday trade..Gold seen rangebound, may try downside: Gold was trading quietly in anarrow range in Europe early onWednesday and dealers said it could sink lower after failing to break through the $288.00 an ounce level. Silver was more active but also confined to a narrow range. While one trader said its fundamentals were encouraging, another said that technically its apparent inability to break above the $5.20 area signalled a possible downturn. Technicals were seen as less important for the PGMs, especially in platinum, where eyes were focussed on developments out of Russia.
Shanghai copper easier: Shanghai copper futures extended Tuesday's losses and finished slightly lower on Wednesday in line with overnight slippage on the London Metal Exchange, traders said. The active May contract closed at the opening level of 15,080 yuan ($1,821.26) per tonne, off 40 yuan from Tuesday's close. It traded between 15,100 and 15,040. "The LME weakness inspired selling and that triggered stop-loss orders in deferred contracts," a trader said, adding that market lack active buying, even at the dips. Local players tended togo short as they focused on the steadily rising LME copper stocks while ignoring possible production cuts, traders said. LME warehouse stocks increased another 5,500 tonnes to 628,825 tonnes. LME three-month copper ended its Tuesday's kerb at $1,453 per tonne, down from Monday's $1,455. Shanghai spot copper was quoted unchanged at 15,050-15,250yuan per tonne.
Western primary nickel output down: Western world primary nickel production fell in November 1998 to 60,100 tonnes from a revised 63,300 tonnes in October, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) said. Output for October had been pegged at 62,900 tonnes in INSG's previous bulletin. World producers' stocks surveyed by the INSG edged down to 98,400 tonnes from a revised 98,600 in October. The October figure was upwardly revised from 98,400 tonnes. Western world nickel consumption in November dropped to 76,100 tonnes compared to 77,100 tonnes in October, which had been revised from 76,700 tonnes previously. Western world mined nickelproduction decreased in Novmeber to 60,700 tonnes from 63,700 in October, revised from 64,600 tonnes.
French wheat market quiet: French wheat started the week quietly unchanged with news Morocco bought 70,000 tonnes of optional-origin soft wheat providing little support. Rouen wheat hovered at 690 francs for both nearby and forward months. Trading was thin as buyers kept to the sidelines and sellers held out after a slight rebound in prices at the end of last week. Operators said Morocco's wheat purchase was too small to give a significant lift to depressed prices and that France might land just 30,000 tonnes under the overall deal. "To react the market would need a sale of at least one million tonnes," one dealer said. A recent extension of the French Coface-backed grain export credit between Morocco and France is also not yet operational, operators said. France and Morocco have signed an inter-governmental protocol for the sale of 500,000 tonnes of French wheat to Morocco in 1999 but the creditoffer must be finalised through a banking convention.
Coconut oil market seen rangebound: Ample supply and uncertainties over local foreign exchange rates are likely to prompt sideways trading in Rotterdam coconut oil prices this week, Manila vegetable oil traders said on Monday. "Expect a $5 to $10 range for coconut oil this week. I don't think there would be much activity because of prevailing soft demand," said one trader. "They (coconut oil users) still have enough stocks. By the end of last week stocks increased to 124,000 tonnes in Rotterdam from 119,000 tonnes last week," said one trader. Traders said buyers of vegetable oil from Asia are likely to hold back this week because of foreign exchange market concerns. "Most of the time if buyers (of coconut oil) see the peso depreciating they tend to lower prices," said one dealer. The Philippine peso ended at 38.78 to the dollar on Monday from the previous closing of 38.68 on concerns that China might devalue its currency. Besides the peso otherAsian currencies also drifted lower on Monday. The Philippines is the world's largest exporter of coconutoil. The United Coconut Associations of the Philippines Inc (UCAP) said on Monday sellers quoted an average price of $760 per tonne CIF of coconut oil for January/February shipment while buyers quoted an average of $750 per tonne. UCAP said in a report the country's coconut oil exports from January 1 to 21 this year reached 42,000 tonnes. Total exports for the whole of January last year reached 147,485 tonnes.
Greece to buy sugar from ED&F Man, Bauche: London-based ED & F Man and French trading house Bauche won a tender for the sale of 30,000 tonnes of EEC N2 White Crystal Sugar to Hellenic Sugar Industry, an official at the Greek buyer told Reuters. The British company will supply 20,000 tonnes and the French company 10,000 tonnes, the official said. According to the tender, the quantity to be supplied may vary 10 percent on Hellenic Sugar Industry's option. The official said he expected thefinal contracts to be signed later this week or early next week. He declined to disclose the exact cost of the transaction but said "the price was in line with expectations and intra-European intervention levels, taking into account transportation costs". Deliveries are scheduled between March and July. The tender, which had a January 13 deadline for the submission of bids, was part of Hellenic Sugar Industry's regular purchases from the European Union to meet Greece's supply deficit in recent years.
Indonesia's unhusked rice output seen up: Indonesia is optimistic of meeting its target unhusked rice output of 52 million tonnes in calendar 1999, Agriculture Minister Soleh Salahudin said on Wednesday. "Our estimation stands at 52 million tonnes because of the extension of planting areas and also improvement in quality. This year's harvest seems to be very good," he told reporters. "We are optimistic we can reach the target of 52 million tonnes." Indonesia's output of unhusked rice in 1998 was 47million tonnes. He said imports incalendar 1999 were estimated to fall to two million tonnes because of the good harvests. Imports in the 1998/99 fiscal year (to March 31) were seen at 4.1 million tonnes. Salahudin gave no further details. Harvests will start in March/April. Salahudin said early this month the output target for unhusked rice in 1999 was 52 million tonnes. Rice prices soared earlier this year due to poor harvests, distribution problems and the collapse of the value of the rupiah, which made rice imports more expensive.
Tunisia phosphates exports up: Tunisia's lime phosphates and phosphates by-products exports during the first 10 months of 1998 totalled 566.5 million dinars ($515 million), up from 521.9 million dinars during the same period year, official statistics in 1997, statistics bureau data showed on Monday. Total volume exported was down to 3.300 million tonnes from 3.377 milion tonnes. The fall in volume was mainly caused by a drop in sales abroad of lime phosphate to 797,900tonnes worth 32.7 million dinars from 1.039 million tonnes worth 37.9 million dinars. Exports of phosphoric acid were 1.091 million tonnes worth 238 million dinars compared to 1.132 million tonnes worth 235.3 million dinars. Diammonium phosphate DAP exports were 719,700 tonnes worth 174.6 million dinars compared to 614,100 tonnes worth 143.7 million dinars. Triple super phosphate exports were 652,000 tonnes worth 117.1 million dinars compared to 560,000 tonnes worth 101.3 million dinars. Miscellaneous phosphate by-products exports were 39,600 tonnes worth 4.1 million dinars compared to 32,300 tonnes worth 4.9 million dinars.
Lithuania refinery may shut down: Lithuania's Mazheikiu Nafta refinery may be shut down on Friday since it has failed to reach an agreement on supplies of Russian crude oil, the daily Lietuvos Rytas reported on Wednesday. "It (the refinery) can continue one or two days, or maybe longer. I can't say anything more concrete. Everything should become clearer at the end of the weekdepending on what Russia decides," the paper quoted Gediminas Kiesus, the head of Mazheikiu Nafta, as saying. During the winter, a one day closure can cost the refinery as much as $250,000, the newspaper added. Earlier this month Mazheikiu Nafta held a round of inconclusive talks with top Russian oil companies over crude supplies for 1999 but no agreement was reached. The company said it expected an additional crude supply timetable at the end of January and that it had enough crude supplies for the month. Mazheikiu is the only oil refinery in the Baltic countries. Mazheikiu Nafta refined 6.781 million tonnes of crude in 1998 compared with 5.671 million tonnes the year before and had said it aimed to refine 7.2 million tonnes in 1999.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.