Traditionally, finance ministers duck talking on fiscal-related issues with the proximity of the budget. Reticence is preferred not merely to protect the secrecy that shrouds budget proposals, but to hold lobbies, seeking duty protection or reliefs, at bay. Yashwant Sinha has been untypically loquacious of late, even confessing that ``we (Governments) had misused our authority by granting undeserved concessions'' in import duties. This may warm the cockles of swadeshi hearts. But lobbies will now work overtime to prove which concession is deserving and which undeserving.
The import lobby will exert to keep the floor level of duties as low as possible, while the protectionist lobby will press for a high threshold. Did Governments ``misuse authority''? Duties were zeroed in on items which yielded negligible revenue, and were reduced to bring down costs. Reform of import duties in recent years has not been exactly popular with the customs bureaucracy. It is to be hoped that the finance minister is notsuccumbing to pressures from tax officials.
Sinha has talked of reviewing the 5 per cent special customs duty and the 4 per cent special additional duty. The first is due to lapse any way, and the second is not yielding much revenue. Sinha could logically replace these with a hike in import duties. He might even talk (though he has not) of raising duties on crude and refined products (at the expense of accretions to the oil pool account). Low oil prices have hit customs collections hard.
Many imported raw materials and components are coming into the country at drastically low prices in the wake of the recession abroad. So, there could be hikes in import duties over a wide spectrum. All these are in the realm of possibility. But the finance minister talking about floor duties and making imports dear is hardly innocuous.
This could lead to a rush to import, and hold back imported supplies in the domestic market. Speculators could take the view that the rupee is overvalued, and this calls for high importduties. Likewise, talking about three excise duty rates (merit, mean and demerit) means many duties will be upped; trader-manufacturers can make a shrewd guess and hoard (the opportunity for which is immense in these times of easy liquidity).
Wearing the swadeshi heart on the sleeve may not even be good politics for Sinha. His unabashed wooing of big business may set tongues wagging. The finance minister must learn to keep his counsel. He should focus his attention on the economic strategy for kick-starting growth, and stop expatiating on the nitty-gritty of ``calibrating globalisation''.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.