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Wednesday, January 20, 1999

IPE Brent crude, gas oils to test lower levels 

REUTERS  
LONDON, Jan 19: IPE Brent crude and gas oil futures were expected to trade sideways to lower on Tuesday with chart gaps to the upside of both pressure firmly on the downside, analysts said.

Looking at the weekly chart, Peter Sceats at TFS Energy Technical analysis said in his weekly report.

"The market reacted classically to the gap up at $10.28/31 and retraced almost exactly 23.60 per cent of the recent range. But last week's challenge to the $10.28 gap looks the most likely scenario".

A dark cloud cover candle is usually a bearish signal and is formed when prices open higher and then close more than 50 per cent down into the previous trading period's range.

Looking at the March chart Sceats said: "While the recent top above $11.75 on the March chart may be constructive later on from a peak and trough progression point of view, it was disappointing for the bulls to have missed out on a 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement at $12.95 which was the target.

"There was a sell signal after the top whichmanifested itself in the $11.35-33 gap down. While price action is South of this gap further side to down action is on the cards," he added.

Sceats said the gap down around $12.40 opened in mid-November on the spot month continuation chart was the technical reason that last week's rally stopped where it did.

Gas oil has a similar price gap around $115.00/$114.50 on its spot month chart that may have capped its recent rally, but analysts said the more recent gap down between $108.75 and $105.75 was likely to keep the downside pressure on prices while it remains.

Analysts said the near term downside target for gas oil may be the gap up between $92 and $93 from the beginning of rally from $89.25. Short term moving average measures on both contracts are turning mildly bearish with the convergence of 10 and 20-day measures narrowing the bullish forward backwardation slightly, and both measures are turning convergent to the weaker price action.

On the supportive side RSI measures are neutral to oversoldwhile daily stochastics are deeply oversold and the convergence of the oscillators with their own moving average may be flagging a limited buy signal, analysts said.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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