Hong Kong, Jan 14: A weaker currency in Brazil was likely to stimulate imports of soybeans and related products into China later this year, traders said on Thursday.They said the market was quiet at present because of falling domestic prices caused by heavy importing earlier and an unexpectedly good harvest.
However, Brazil is a key supplier to China and importing could be revived beginning in a couple of months if Brazil's exports were cheaper due to the currency's fall against the dollar, they said.
"I don't see any impact at the moment, but I think Brazil beans and products will be more competitive and stimulate imports," one trader said.
He predicted more imports of Brazilian soybeans and soymeal in May and June.
Brazil in effect devalued its currency, the real, on Wednesday by about eight percent against the dollar after efforts to stem a large outflow of foreign capital investment failed.
The weaker currency makes cheaper Brazil's exports of soybeans, coffee, sugar and other commodities. Analysts also said Brazilian exporters needing to raise cash quickly to pay debts may step up sales.
In response, Chicago soybean futures fell to 4-1/2-month lows, with the March contract down 4 cents to $5.33 a bushel.
One trader said he didn't expect any quick impact from Brazil because the worldwide price of soybeans was still higher than China's domestic price, which fell to about 1,900 yuan per tonne ($229).
The price for US soybeans for February was about $223 a tonne C&F China before import duties. The price for South American soybeans for May was $216-217 a tonne C&F China.
China's consumption of soybeans has been growing faster than production, leading to record imports during the past two years.
If present trends continue, China could be the largest market for US soybeans, American farm executives have said, but they add that US exports face increasingly tougher competition Asia from South America.
Brazil, the second largest exporter of soybeans to China, and Argentina can produce soybeans more cheaply than the United States, the executives said.
Brazil was also the largest supplier of imported soymeal for China in 1997/98 and the second largest exporter of soyoil after the United States.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.