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Tuesday, December 22, 1998

Soft commodities seen drifting 

REUTERS  
London, Dec 21: Liffe soft commodities are seen unlikely to gain much ground this week with sugar and coffee expected to decline and cocoa to remain quietly depressed.

Traders said that white sugar futures may fall further after touching a five-week low on Friday in further long liquidation after earlier selling triggered by fears of postponement of an Iraqi buying tender under a UN food-for-oil deal.

Iraq had tendered to buy 50,000 tonnes of whites for Jan/March shipment with the result scheduled early this week. "The fall was inevitable. The market had been threatening to break lower and it at last found the 'oomph' from the Iraqi bombing to do so," said a trader, adding he hoped trading volumes would remain higher.

Although front March whites briefly bounced on Friday, they were soon overwhelmed by selling and technical analysts said they could now test support at $235.70 and $234.19. On the upside, March whites face resistance at $243 and $246.50.

In coffee, a trader said he was looking for a testof 117 cents a pound on New York arabica futures which would coincide with a test of $1,780 a tonne on the March contract in London.

On Friday March fell through $1,800 and the next major support level in London is seen at $1,750 or $1,755 and then $1,720 or $1,700.

The market was waiting to see whether the major player squeezing the market was really net long of certified coffee or whether he was hedged in both the January and March contracts.

"If the Jan-Mar switch comes down to around $40 or $50 or even level money, then the situation might change and he could start rolling," the trader said.

Cocoa was described by traders as "dull as ditchwater" and expected to remain stuck in a tight range. "If it had held at 940 stg it could have had further gains but I think we'll really have to wait until after the New Year to see anything of interest happen," one trader said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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