As imports into the United States, Canada and Mexico contract, European and Asian manufacturers with plants in the region will expand slightly to cover up some of the shortfall, according to a recent study by the Agoura Hills, California-based industry research firm. That should allow North American plant utilization to remain healthy.

J.D. Power also said worldwide pressure would lead to mergers and acquisitions, and automakers simply abandoning markets, ultimately resulting in fewer automakers in the North American market.

"This removal of marginal producers will result in a lower number of imports and some potential adjustments in the numbers and the activities of transplant facilities," Paul Ballew, J.D. Power partner and senior director ofautomotive analysis, said in a statement.

"These changes will be generally favourable in reducing overall vehicle supplies devoted to North America."

Imports into North America are half what they were a decade ago, mostly because automakers have moved assembly operations into the region, J.D. Power said.

Eventually, the Asia region, which accounts for almost 30 per cent of global vehicle demand, will recover, however, the company said. Combined with the pullback in assembly investment that occurred during the financial turmoil, that will lead to a worldwide plant operating rate of 81.5 per cent late next decade from 71 per cent to 72 per cent now, according to the study.

Despite worldwide overcapacity, North America's plant utilization rate at present is healthy at about 80 per cent, J.D. Power said.

"Healthy North American light-vehicle demand has partially curbed the effects of the Asian crisis," Ballew said.

Nevertheless, pressure on manufacturers in North America remains intense. "Thelong-term financial viability of the North American automotive industry necessitates sustained operating rates above 80 per cent," Ballew said.

Within North America, plant utilization rate at passenger-car assembly plants is below 80 per cent, while plants that make light trucks -- pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles and minivans -- have experienced difficulty meeting demand, J.D. Power said. The operation rate at SUV assembly plants is above 90 per cent.

The imbalance in production rates between car and light truck plants in North America should be corrected over the next decade, the company said.