Yesterday this column pointed out that the Sensex is likely to get support aat 2884. In fact, the index got support at 2887. It was also anticipated that several scrips would stop sliding and indeed could recover. This, too, has happened.Now, for Thursday, the market now looks set for a rise. The market opened on a lukewarm note at 2907, reflecting the overhang of the Tuesday's reaction.The index went as low as 2887, a distinct 39 points lower than the previous low of 2926. However, the weakness in prices was overcome in the post-mid day session and the index posted an intra day high of 2937. This high was still lower than the previous high of 2926. But at close, the index had gained 9 points day over day. It closed at 2937.
The index has managed to stay above the 12 day's exponential moving average, which is now at 2929.
The daily stochastic indicator is looking up positioned at 34.98. It is still below its trigger line which is at 37.73. This would mean that prices have to rise some more before onecould take Sensex to be indicating a buy.
But on the other hand, when you take a look at the scrips in the Sensex portfolio, you see the potential in a number of scrips to not only firm up but indeed move up. In common sense terms this is little perplexing as the market rise had been aborted at the peak. Though the reason was cited as the failure of the Insurance Bill to go through smoothly, the real reason could be profit booking. This is also corroborated by fact of FII's joining the selling now.
With that being the background it is somewhat surprising that prices are firming up. The market is not allowing further slide!
The job of technical analysis is to indicate the action of the market players. And clearly the action at the end of Wednesday is to take values up further. On the upside, the index might come up with a resistance at 2993. This is a weak resistance. If the index clears that it will come up with a resistance at 3018.
So right now, the sensible thing to do is to join the market moodand go long on select scrips. And of course you need to take profits at right moments. HLL, ITC and Reliance look capable of lending support to the Sensex.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.