Brown, a fellow of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britian and responsible for a host of top-notch healthcare publications like Scrip, Pharmaproject etc, was in Mumbai to address an international congress organised jointly by the Indian Pharmaceutical Congress Association (Ipca) and the Federation of Asian Pharmaceutical Associations (Fapa).

Brown said that in the past 20 years, the number of research and development-based companies had been falling as they merged, one after the other, into larger units. "They will continue to merge as they find themselves unable to renew their product portfolios every 20 years with negative consequences for their revenues and profits. So companies must beable to reinvent their entire portfolio every 20 years. The increasing specialisation of their new product output could make this renewal process even harder than it was in the past," the PJB Publications executive chairman said.

He, however, added that mergers were traumatic affairs for those who work in the companies concerned and take place to ward off trouble rather than create strong new entities.

He said that in the years to come, companies will include the development of lifestyle products like Viagra and Xenical which will have high patient demand but which will not necessarily be reimbursed by national health services.

Besides, companies will also try to sell their branded products to patients who can afford to pay the premium price, either directly from their pockets or through private insurance. Direct-to-consumer advertising and Internet communications will be used increasingly to stimulate demand for branded products both before and after patent expiry.

Brown also said that only whencountries reach a certain level of economic development, the R&D-based pharmaceutical products have a role to play in the health of a nation. Then the products which are made available address the specific health problems of those societies.

"Also, as the health needs of those nations change, so too does the profile of pharmaceuticals that are brought through R&D efforts to those markets," he said.