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Saturday, November 28, 1998

Malaysia Airlines may dive into the red in H1 

Azhar Sukri  
Kuala Lumpur, Nov 27: National carrier Malaysian Airline System Bhd is likely to dive into the red for the first half of its current financial year, pulled down by foreign exchange losses, analysts said on Friday.

A poll of five analysts covering the stock yielded an average consensus of a net loss of 295 million ringgit ($77.6 million) for the six months to September 30, compared to net profit of 23.5 million ringgit in the same period in 1997.

Analysts said that they had been informed by MAS the results would be released on Monday. Malaysia Airlines officials could not be reached for comment.

"These results are very crucial because they will show the effect of the move to the new airport and it will show the real impact of the economic slowdown," said an airline analyst at a large local brokerage.

Malaysia Airlines moved its operations to the new Kuala Lumpur International Airport at the end of June.

Even at a pegged exchange rate of 3.80 per US dollar, the Malaysian ringgit currency is 34 percent weaker than before the start of the Asian economic crisis in July 1997.

Analysts estimate a foreign exchange loss of 300 million to 400 million ringgit for the half-year, due to MAS' debts of about $3.16 billion, some 90 per cent of which is denominated in US dollars.

"Less than one per cent of their debt is denominated in ringgit," said an airline analyst at a European brokerage in Hong Kong.

Operationally, too, MAS looks to have hit turbulence.

Analysts said that because of the regional economic crisis, passenger load factors have probably come down to between 55 and 60 per cent with similar load factors for cargo.

Load factors in the first half of 1997 averaged around 70 per cent, just around the breakeven point if foreign exchange is excluded.

The airline spent a substantial amount of money to move its operations to the new airport.

The cost was compounded by delays caused by teething troubles during the first few days of the new airport's operations, analysts said.

The sale ofaircraft was another variable that analysts will be looking out for on Monday, they said.

MAS said in August it had signed a deal to sell Australian carrier Qantas one Boeing 747-400 and was negotiating to sell it another.

The airline had said earlier in the year it planned to sell a total of eight aircraft to reduce its debts.

For the full year to March 31, 1998, MAS recorded a net loss of 260 million ringgit. Analysts estimate this could jump to between 500 million and 700 million by the end of the current financial year.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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