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Thursday, November 12, 1998

Economic recovery can take Sensex to 3,600 points by March next year 

K Seshadri  
The reaction set in the market taking Sensex down to 2976, losing 29 points over the previous close of 3005. The daily stochastic indicator has cut downwards through its trigger line, signalling a sell. But that is only indicating that the reaction has set in. The question is how far and how long would the reaction last. Yesterday, I had pointed out that the reaction could be brief. This is based on the fact that in the weekly chart, both for the Sensex and other pivotals, there is much more room to go up.

Technically, the index was looking at 3265 as the first level of upclimb. Now, one must look at the index in different perspectives. Everyone is hoping for the economic recovery process to gain strength. If this hope is realistic, then the index could be aiming for 3600 say by March 1999.

It is in this framework we have to see how far the index can move down now. Take core sector scrips like Bhel, ACC, Gujarat Ambuja, Hindalco etc. They have the scope to move up much higher than the current levels overthe next four months.

In other words, quite possibly bears would run higher risk if they try to run down the market back to the starting block. But market alone can answer how bold the bears will become.

Since several stocks have given up the gains of the previous day, those bears who join short selling later now have only limited opportunity. ACC might resist at Rs 980. Arvind could find support at Rs 32.50. Bajaj Auto could lose another Rs 10. Bhel has attracted profit taking, but volumes are not alarming.

Rs 154 might prove to be the target for BSES. HLL has the potential to bounce back at Rs 1624. Rs 265.40 is a base line for HPCL. Now take a look at Larsen & Toubro. This typifies the problem. With core sector recovery this scrip should gain. It is in reaction, but bottom is close at hand. How far can this be driven down. That typifies again several other scrips like ICICI and SBI. Technically for Reliance, Rs 116 seems to be a midway point in the band between Rs 100 to Rs 120.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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