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Monday, November 9, 1998

Production blues 

 
Farmers in the northern region of the country, especially in Punjab, have suffered huge losses in the kharif season. DAP has been in short-supply in the markets as a result of the government's volte-face on free-pricing of the nutrient. Even if free-pricing had been allowed to prevail, and a good supply of the fertiliser ensured, not many would have been able to afford to apply the same to their fields to get them ready for the rabi season. From these facts alone, it can clearly be guaged that agricultural production is unlikely to grow as expected.

The north zone is the largest consumer of fertiliser and other agri-inputs in the country as agricultural production in this region is the highest. As there are clear indicators to the effect that the rabi season will not be as productive as expected, fertiliser imports have already been pared to a bare minimum. Only a million tonnes of urea imports for the entire year -- of which 6 lakh tonnes were for the kharif season, though domestic production has increasedonly marginally during the year. As against this, during the previous year, 10 million tonnes of urea were imported. Even the domestic production has been piling up. While it is clearly evident that DAP manufacturers are unlikely to close the year on an optimistic note, if the rabi season turns out to be even worse than current expectations, the performance of other agri-input companies could also come under a cloud. Especially the urea companies that have a major exposure to Punjab, mainly NFL and IFFCO are likely to feel the heat. The acute shortage of seeds that is being currently felt in Uttar Pradesh is another ominous portent. The good performance by the other urea companies like Indo Gulf Corporation and Oswal Chemicals & Fertilisers in the first half, is therefore, unlikely to be repeated in the second half.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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