India Business Forum

Search Button

The Indian Express

The Financial Express

Latest News

EIW

Market Indicators

Screen

Boulevard India

Celebrity Chat

Express Computers

Express Power

Letters

Advertisers Forum


Headstart

Business Forum

Match Makers

Express Properties

Palki - Travel & Tours

Information Technology

Astrosurf

Eco-India

Dr Know

Morning Digest

Express Greeting

Graffiti

Drumbeat: Ad Buzzaar


FINANCIAL EXPRESS FRONT PAGE

Corporate

Economy

Expressions

Markets

Leisure

 

Saturday, November 7, 1998

Centre needs to spell out intent to cheer market 

K Seshadri  
November 6: A meeting reported to have taken place between some invitee FII fund managers and the ministry of finance on the status of US-64 makes interesting reading.

The meeting is part of the transactions of a committee to look into the US-64 problems. The committee is headed by Deepak Parekh of HDFC. One cannot but welcome this meeting at the bureaucratic level to consult heads of financial institutions. But seriously, the investor is rather exasperated at the apparent ignorance of the government when it comes to the stock markets. What is so crystal clear to even ordinary investors seems to escape those in the government.

For unlike the mandarins in the finance ministry, investors play with their hard earned money. And, therefore, it becomes imperative for them to continuously educate themselves about the whys and wherefores of stock markets.

The UTI problem clearly centres around the efficacy of fund management, as any long-time player in the stock market would tell you. The reasons for theerosion in the value of equity investments have already been discussed adequately in the financial press, so I do not intend to go into these here. But I certainly wonder what additional input the FII fund managers would have given to the committee. The only consolation is that the finance ministry officials would now have had the benefit of hearing from the horse's mouth as to what is wrong with the Indian stock markets. The rest of the issue about restructuring US-64 is only peripheral.

It is clear to most common people that the stock markets cannot be revived by fiddling around with a screw here or tightening a bolt there. But that is exactly what the government is doing in the belief that they will be able to fix the slide in stock prices.

After repeated assurances, buyback has now been brought in through an ordinance. What the government does not realise is that buyback has only a limited scope and that alone cannot revive the stock markets. The revival of the stock market can take place onlyalongside the revival of the economy. Vajpayee has announced grandiose plans to invest over Rs 20,000 crore. Such announcements will hardly have any impact on the market. This is because the market has been hearing of such promises from Sinha and others for quite some time now.

On the other hand, what the investors know for sure is that while no productive results are coming out of the economy, this government has shown no track record evidence of cutting unwanted expenditure or discontinuing the gifts of subsidies. Permit me to dig a little deeper into this cancer which has been growing for quite some time now. I have heard even from government servants that the government's biggest mistake was to gift away a huge amount in terms of wage increments. You may recall that as against the Pay Commission's recommendation of around Rs 4,700 crore, the government decided to gift away over Rs 8,000 crore. The credit should go to the Communist Party which had a strong influence on such matters. This is notrecounting an old story. This is serious. Successive governments are mortgaging the future of this country. There is clearly lack of responsibility. For any responsible national leader would look beyond his immediate benefits to long-term sustainability. How serious the malaise is can be gauged from the following:

The retirement age of senior scientists, I am told, has been raised to 62, but not as a gesture of goodwill. It has been done out of a contingency. The government, I am told, would have no funds to pay the retirement settlement, if everyone retired at 60. Let me elaborate how the government is working purely on an ad hoc basis and without serious involvement. Any finance manager would forecast his future fund flows and how he is going to meet his outgoes. The leaders who run this country seem to think that such an exercise is not necessary. Their immediate concern is to please the vote bank, by means fair or foul to the rest of the nation. The pity is no one is opposing this irresponsibleattitude, for fear of antagonising the voters.So if the government gives away Rs 8,000-odd crore, other parties keep silent, or worse still, make some amicable noises. The prime minister has now announced plans to build four international airports. It has been common for prime ministers to announce a new airport at places they go to on visits, only to leave the secretaries confounded as to how such projects are going to be financed. This time the prime minister has done it in mega style.

Where are the funds going to come from, and what are the returns? Is any one, including members of parliament (MPs) in the opposition, asking? Have we not gone through all such unproductive adventures in the last 40 years, pumping in over Rs 72,000 crore of borrowed and public money into enterprises which hardly earn 1.5 per cent return.

I am sure the FII fund managers cannot tell the emperor that he is without clothes. On the other hand, I am quite amused to see all the government and industry spokespersons ganging upto take a dig at the international rating agencies for downgrading India. Seriously, is it not a fact that the government shows no intention of controlling its fiscal deficit. You have seen reports about ministers splurging on foreign trips while the going is good. No one is asking what is the return. This cannot happen in a business house. Yet we have specialised in mindless prattle.

On the other hand, investors, both domestic and global, can clearly see the game that is going around. The BJP is giving more attention to political measures, which would enable it to survive not only the current term but also later.

The proposed farmer's insurance is proof of this. Not that this is not the need of the hour. But we are yet to see the government going about its proposals in a way that makes economic sense. Clearly, the present government is paying lip service to the economy. The market needs to see some concrete results to perk up. Let the government go beyond words. How, is it's business. But the investorsare increasingly getting restive about the honest intentions of the government when it comes to coming to grips with economic, not political, management. You do not need FIIs to tell you all this, do you?

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


Top


The Ambassador Group of Hotels

Global Tenders invited by MSTC

The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE)

 

Click here for a printer-friendly page Printer-friendly page

One of India's Leading Banks


The Indian Express  |  The Financial Express  |  Latest News
Screen  |  Express Investment Week  |  Market Indicators  |  Express Computers
Astrosurf  |  Eco-India  |  Travel & Tourism  |  Information Technology  |  Drumbeat: Ad Buzzaar
Advertisers Forum  |  Career India  |  Business Forum  |  Match Maker  |  Express Properties