Governor Bimal Jalan dropped the first hint of the impending change by rechristening the traditional busy-season credit policy as "mid-term review of monetary and credit policy". He followed it up telling reporters, "Don't expect anything... It is going to be a non-event," on the sidelines of a recent Ficci meeting in Mumbai.

Jalan expressed his reluctance to play to the gallery. He also made it clear that there is no point in having two policy announcements a year, even though market participants and analysts keenly await the governorspeak.

In fact, at the time of unveiling the April policy, Jalan had said the second policy document would be a mere stock-taking exercise. And which is what he is widely expected to do so on Friday: dwelling onthe state of economy and leaving liquidity and interest-rate management unattended for the while. One way of looking at the new development is a simple premise: the Reserve Bank is finding it trifle difficult to take a view on the state of the economy and hence the silence. Hopes were pinned on agricultural growth but, with excessive rains and floods wreaking havoc in parts of the country, expectations may be belied. Maybe at this juncture the central bank wants the government to make all announcements to spur growth and watch the show from the sidelines.

Ever since the BJP government has come to power, the North Block has made a string of monetary-policy announcements. For instance, finance minister Yashwant Sinha in his budget speech announced the decision to raise banks' capital-adequacy ratio to 10 per cent in phases. Sinha also announced a cut in the export-credit rate, even though the Reserve Bank did not support the idea.Does that mean that the so-called autonomy of the central bank is merely onpaper? Observers do not think so. "It seems that Jalan wants to confine himself to only credit- and monetary-policy announcements and not dabble in everything.. Finance minister Sinha on record said Reserve Bank is the last word of forex policy," says a former central bank official.

Jalan is planning to make a clear departure from the tradition. As another central bank insider puts it: "When the entire year is at his disposal, why should he choose two days to make policy announcements. There is nothing sacrosanct about slack- or busy-season credit policy. A central banker's job is to respond to changing situations and which is precisely what Jalan has been doing. If the situation demands, he will announce measures, and for that he will not wait for the credit policy day."