While the equities market focused on Billiton plc's beefed-up takeover bid for QNI Ltd, analysts saw Murrin Murrin as the real key to the world nickel market.

Billiton is now seen likely to capture QNI after an initial tussle over terms, but the bigger question for nickel is whether Anaconda will have a seamless start-up at Murrin Murrin next month.

"It seems highly unlikely," Keith Goode, resources analyst at Bell Securities, said.

Goode sees Anaconda's commissioning of the A$1 billion 45,000 tonnes a year Murrin Murrin laterite ore project 45 kilometres east of Leonora in Western Australia as more likely in February/March next year.

Anaconda was not immediately available for comment.

But scepticism on Anaconda left the Billiton takeover of QNI a sidelight on the overall nickel market, whose fortunes areseen balanced around perceptions of when Murrin Murrin will come on stream.

Doubts about Anaconda's ability to bring its lower-cost laterite project on stream next month are based largely on teething troubles already encountered at Western Australia's two other new laterite nickel projects, Preston Resources NL's Bulong venture and Centaur Mining and Exploration Co Ltd's Cawse project.

Goode believes the nickel market has a fair chance of turning up mid-next year. But he sees Anaconda as the key.

"Everyone is watching to wait and see on the commissioning of the nickel laterites," Goode said.

But with Bulong and Cawse already grappling with teething troubles with their plants, Goode sees it as "highly unlikely" that Anaconda can have its mill running properly by mid-November. This would leave the jury out on the overall nickel market until June next year, Goode said. This leaves Anaconda and Russia as the two big overhanging factors in the nickel market.

Months ago when the rouble collapsed worldmarkets feared that Russia was about to open its floodgates on nickel exports.

That did not exactly occur. But now Russia's recent resolution of its icebreaker problem so that it can use the northern sea route for exports is producing a new Russian overhang on the nickel market, Virginia Howarth, resources analyst at Bankers Trust said.

The main question was exactly how much Russia would have to export from stocks and from the most recent half year's production, she said.

Australian analysts, meanwhile, clearly agree on the Billiton-QNI wash-up for nickel.

"Billiton is a long-term player so it's not going to get too hung up over short-term weakness in the market," one said.

Goode's perspective has an extra edge.

"The reason why they (Billiton) are doing it is they expect the nickel market to recover," he said.

-- REUTERS