According to industry sources, a likely fall in the projected output of foodgrains during the ongoing rabi season stems from poor availability of phosphatic fertilisers like diammonium phosphate (DAP) owing to inappropriate government policies.

"The good rains that swept the states would have given a better foodgrain yield in the country over the previous year. However, with the recent roll back of the government policy of lifting the price ceiling on decontrolled fertilisers has lead to a virtual shortage of the fertiliser," Rama Phosphate director SV Balkundi said.

The total yield of foodgrains last year was around 200 million tonnes, of which 110 million tonne was accounted by rabi crop. Major rabi crops are wheat, mustard and gram. Theoutput of these crops is expected to be affected due to non-availability of phosphatic fertilisers.

DAP imports is said to have dropped drastically owing to uncertainty regarding the subsidy and the government's move to roll back its earlier decision to lift the price ceiling on decontrolled fertilisers.

The shortfall in DAP is expected to be around two million tonnes during the current season. A lack of initiative on the part of DAP importing companies in the midst of an uncertain subsidy environment has led to the shortage of the fertiliser.

"The ratio of DAP consumption to crop output is generally 1:6. Every tonne of DAP will yield six tonnes of the foodgrain. A drop in the application of phosphatic fertiliser will thus mean a drop in the yield," Dharamsi Morarji Chemicals Company (DMCC) managing director JL Thakkar said.

Even as the projected output of 120 million to 122 million tonnes of foodgrains, which is the optimum level, will not be achieved at the end of the rabi season, the total outputwill remain more or less at the same level as last year's.

The industry feels that the situation could have been averted and the country would have derived a better benefit from the good pre-rabi monsoon had the government not turned its back on lifting the price ceiling.

This is also expected to lead to a further imbalance in the NPK ratio which is already at an adverse level of 7.5:4:1. The ratio had improved over the previous year's 9.5:4:1, which was highly skewed towards nutrient nitrogen. The NPK ratio, feel industry experts, could have been rectified had the consumption of phosphatic fertilisers been more appropriate.

Insight

Government apathy will lead to shortfall

So far as farmer buying is concerned, phosphatic fertilisers like DAP suffer a natural disadvantage over nitrogenous fertilisers like urea. While DAP is normally applied before the results of the farmer's labours can be noticed, urea is applied after the status of the crop can reasonably be ascertained. Therefore,while the prospects of a gain that can be clearly seen drives the tiller to apply urea to his crops, there is little incentive for him to use DAP for he does not know with reasonable certainty whether or not the investment would finally pay off. To top it all, the government's fertiliser policy is clearly biased in favour of urea which attracts massive subsidies and is thus sold at an artificially low price.

However, the application of phosphatic fertilisers is equally important, as without them, the country's soil would slowly lose its fertility. This has already started happening with the worsening NPK ratio and the situation demands an urgent solution. Yet the government has time and again failed to provide a suitable policy initiative, as a result of which phosphatic fertilisers are in acute short-supply at a time when they are required for the rabi crops. The direct impact of this short-supply will therefore be a lower than expected crop yield.