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Monday, October 19, 1998

Lead touches four-year low at $485 per tonne 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
Like nickel and zinc, lead has also turned bearish on the London Metal Exchange (LME). In fact, if one were to go by the technical position of the metal, the latest fall is of great concern as it has broken a crucial support level of $500 per tonne.

It touched a 4-year low of $485 per tonne. The current position of the price suggest that the fall may last for some more time. As it can be seen in the chart, this level was of great importance for lead.

The uptrend, which started in the first quarter of 1993 at a level of $350, lasted till the level of $500. After a minor correction, the rally took the metal to peak of $700.

This peak was established in the last quarter of 1994. In its next uptrend, lead prices hit a new high of $900 in the second quarter of 1996.

However, thereafter, the story is different. Expect some minor corrections, the metal remained bearish and after a two-year long southward journey, it took a support at $500 in the beginning of this year. At that level, it appeared that itmight make a smart comeback as it managed to moved above the two-year falling channel. In fact, it also managed to post a higher bottom in the second quarter of this year. This bottom was at around $540. However, past few month saw unsuccessful attempts by the metal to hold on to these level.

The fall was gradual which accelerated in the recent past and the metal dipped below the $500 level.

With breach of this level, the metal has entered into a new bearish orbit and the support level has now become the resistance. In other words, in future, it tries to rally, this level would act as a major hurdle. The next support levels for the metal are $430 and $400. And a fall to these levels cannot ruled out. Overall, it would remain bearish in the near future. Lead supplies in the Asian spot markets dried up forcing premiums to go up as high as $80 over the LME prices.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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