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Tuesday, October 13, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

FE NEWS SERVICE  
Indian gold, silver steady: Indian gold and silver opened unchanged from their Saturday's close amid limited trade and firm world prices, dealers said on Monday. Standard gold 24 carat opened steady at Rs 4,340 per 10 grams. Gold was down by Rs 40 on Saturday. Gold biscuit (116.64 grams) prices remained steady at Rs 51,100 per piece after losing Rs 500 on Saturday. In the European market, gold was quoted firmer at $297.50/$298.00 per ounce against the previous New York close of $296.50/$297.00. Silver (.999) was steady at Rs 7,430 per kg. It was down by Rs 220 on Saturday. In Europe, silver opened at $4.85/$4.88 per ounce, up from its previous New York close of $4.78/$4.81. "Steady overseas supplies are likely to keep local silver prices subdued," one dealer said.

Malaysia tin ends down: Malaysia's spot tin price ended down three cents at 20.0 ringgit ($5.26) a kg on Monday with a larger offering weighing on the market, traders said. "LME (London Metal Exchange) was up on Friday but this wasoffset by the higher offering," said a trader. Volume was 85 tonnes, up from 65 tonnes on Friday, with buying from Europe, Japan and Malaysia appearing at the 20 ringgit level, traders said. They said the price could hold at around 20 ringgit a kg due to persistent demand from Japan on the back of the yen's strength. "Japanese buyers have been quite active recently mainly due to the stronger yen," the trader said. The local price premium over the London market narrowed to $70 a tonne from $90 previously following the price fall here and a higher London close on Friday, traders said.

Tocom metals extend losses: Yen-based precious metal futures continued a downward swing to end sharply lower on Monday, as long-holders unwound their positions amid the dollar's slide against the yen, traders said. "It is difficult to say when the market will stop declining. It totally depends on dollar/yen moves," one brokerage analyst said. "The market seems to have more downward potential as the dollar is expected tofall towards last week's low (of 111.45 yen) in the short term." Gold futures ranged from 22 to 55 yen per gram lower. Benchmark August ended off 53 yen at 1,093 yen, after hitting a life-of-contract low at 1,088 yen. Spot gold was quoted at $296.80/297.20 an ounce at 0715 GMT, against Friday's New York close of 296.50/00.

Opec output up: Opec oil output rose by 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) to reach 27.27 million bpd in September, largely as a result of a rise in Iranian production, the Middle East Economic Survey reported on Monday. Opec's increase from 27.01 million bpd in August represents a fall in compliance with pledged output cuts to 81 percent in September from 92 percent in August, the newsletter reported. MEES said Iranian output rose to 3.688 million bpd, an increase of 305,000 bpd above the August figure of 3.383 million. Under agreements reached earlier in the year among the 11 member states of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-member producers, Iranpromised to curb its output to 3.318 million bpd from July 1. Iraqi output was estimated to have fallen by 30,000 bpd to 2.39 million bpd in September from a revised 2.42 million bpd in August. Nigerian output was reckoned to have climbed by around 90,000 bpd to reach two million bpd in September as operations began to return to normal after the earlier disruptions.

Oman crude remains soft: Trading for medium crude grade Oman remained bearish amid a lack of keen buying interest in early Asia on Monday as Japanese refiners were inclined to procure lighter grades to build kerosene stocks, traders said. "They (refiners) are cutting overall crude runs, but they need to step up kerosene production towards the winter. This is what makes lighter crudes attractive for them," one trading house trader said. Japanese oil firms were apt to seek lighter grades also because domestic gasoline demand remained healthy, compared with sluggish gas oil sales, traders said. Light crude oil produces more light oilproducts such as gasoline and kerosene than medium and heavy crude grades. Although Japanese refineries are well-equipped with secondary refining units, which enhance yields of lighter, and generally more profitable products, oil firms were aiming to maximise the yields of gasoline and kerosene by processing lighter crudes, traders said. Late last week a November Oman cargo, some 800,000 barrels in volume, was sold by a European trader to a Japanese refiner at 65 cents per barrel below Dubai quotes. The deal came on the heels of two other Oman deals at Dubai quotes minus 60 cents -- one from a Japanese trading house to a US major and the other from another Japanese trader to the same US major.

China to cut cotton output: The Chinese agriculture ministry has proposed to cut cotton output to 3.75 million tonnes in 1999 to trim stockpiles, said an edition of the Farmer's Daily seen on Monday. The ministry also called for limiting farmland under cotton at 4.0 million hectares next year compared with 4.43million hectares this year, the newspaper said. Cotton output this year was expected to fall by 600,000 tonnes year-on-year to about 4.0 million tonnes due to declining farmland under cotton and the impact of summer floods, it said. Although cotton imports in 1998 were expected to drop by 850,000 tonnes compared with 1997, new cotton supply, including domestic production, would be 4.2 million tonnes this year, it said. The existing stocks of old cotton were 1.5 million tonnes, it said. Earlier state media reports put stockpiles at about 2.5 million tonnes at the end of May this year. Domestic cotton demand this year was estimated at about 3.6million tonnes because Asia's financial crisis has seriously hit exports of domestic textile firms, it said. China exported 15,706 tonnes of cotton in the first eight months of 1998, up 1,627.3 percent compared with the year-ago period. Imports were 170,000 tonnes, down by 71 percent, customs figures said.

Tunisia suspends tax on olive oil exports: Tunisia, aleading olive oil exporter, has suspended a customs tax of 1.5 percent on olive oil exports to try to boost sales abroad. The decision, published in the latest issue of the official gazette received on Saturday, said the suspension was valid until December 31. It was part of new measures decided at a cabinet meeting at the end of last month and aimed at facing increasing competition on world markets, encouraging olive oil consumption on the domestic market, reducing production costs, and improving quality through the modernisation of refiners' equipment. Tunisia exported 66,300 tonnes of olive oil worth 121.5million dinars in the first seven months of 1998, down from 73,400 tonnes worth 177.3 million dinars in the same period last year, latest official figures showed.

SFE wheat futures fall: Sydney Futures Exchange wheat fell on Monday on the bearish USDA forecast and on a jump in the Australian dollar. January 1999 was the only month to trade, falling by A$2.75 to A$165.50 a tonne. Settlement pricesof other contracts mostly fell by similar amounts, with more distant months down about A1.25. Jane O'Connor of pastoral group and trader Farmarco attributed the fall to weakness in Chicago wheat, after the bearish USDA report, and to strength in the Australian dollar. Chicago wheat fell after the USDA forecast of a 1998/99wheat carry out of 902 million bushels, above the 885 million estimate of September. Chicago wheat futures' fall was limited by a cut to the USDA outlook for 1998/99 world wheat output, to 590.62 million tonnes from 596.20 million tonnes forecast in the September report. Australian cash grains prices also fell slightly on Monday, for both new season sorghum and wheat.

Dalian soybean ends weaker:

Dalian soybean futures slipped on Monday with harvest-related short selling reversed early gains, traders said. The active January 1999 contract closed at 2,305 yuan ($278) per tonne, off seven yuan from Friday's settlement. It opened at 2,316 and hit an intraday high of 2,321 and a lowof 2,301. The key November 1998 contract dropped one yuan to 2,637. "The harvest in North China is winding down and new beans are putting pressure on prices," a trader said. The local concerns more than offset the gains on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, he said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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