As per SOPA's projection, the crop is in good condition in Madhya Pradesh. Sowing is almost over in 44.25 lakh hectares against the target of 43.65 lakh hectares. Though germination is poor on the whole crop seems satisfactory. Yield is expected to be an average of 1000 kg per hectare. In Rajasthan La Nina impact kept on persisting till July-end and till mid- August unusual weather conditions caused apprehension of crop damages.

But occasional showers arose the hope of a satisfactory crop. Sowing in the state is estimated at 6.17 lakh hector. Production average will be 900 kg per hectare. In Uttar Pradesh 1.04 lakh hectarearea is covered with soyabean and yield is expected to be 1000 kg per hectare.

The total area of sowing is estimated at 55.989 lakh hectares, production 53.473, targeted area 61.406 and area coverage 63.55. Increase in area rose 13.49 per cent, it is learnt.

"Seed price will open around Rs 850 per 100 kg mill delivery basis. However, future direction of prices will depend upon government policy and minimum support price (MSP). As far as soya cake is concerned, prices are expected to be open around Rs 5000 to 5200 per 100 kg, a 10-year low," said Deepak Shah of Madhukant Agrotech. In the last year Soya cake price had touched Rs 14000 per quintal. "Export deals of cake expected to be done in the range of $120 to $130 against the last year average of $270," he added.

Meanwhile, parallel futures of soya oil November traded in Indore is seen Bottoming out. It showed some firmness due to speculative buying at lower level. The futures opened around Rs 394 and dropped to Rs 388 due to selling. However itrecovered to Rs 393.50 following speculative buying at lower level. At present spot oil prices ruled at Rs 420 per 10 kg. While futures prices are quoted at Rs 393.50. Hence there is a backwardation of about Rs 28. Support price or `cut' price for the futures is Rs 382. Hence, traders hesitate to sell at lower level.

Beyond Rs 382 long positions are deemed to be squared of. If somebody buys one lot of futures at Rs 385, his loss will be limited to Rs 3 due to the cut price of Rs 382, while on the upper side he can gain more.

Last date of future is November 30. As a price indicator, future prices reflect good crop scenario, feels an analyst.