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Wednesday, October 7, 1998

CSCE coffee ends firmer in lacklustre trading 

REUTERS  
NEW YORK, Oct 6: CSCE arabica coffee futures ended a shade higher in thin, rangebound trading on Monday amid a lack of fresh fundamental input, dealers said.

"There was no news," said one trader, "and no follow-through in either direction." December coffee rose 0.35 cent per lb on the day, to 103.80 cents, after ranging between 105.40 and 102.75 cents. Second-month March ended 0.25 cent firmer, at 101.90 cents, while the rest of board closed up 0.25 to down 0.15 cent.

The December/March 1999 switch edged out to 1.90 cents, compared with 1.80 cents at the close on Thursday. New York coffee prices headed lower at the outset, but failed to meet down 1.50 to 2.00 cents pre-opening expectations.

The market managed to rebound into positive territory, but market sources said prices remained confined to technical parameters and dealings were dominated by day traders.

An afternoon surge pushed prices toward intra-day highs, however, overhead origin selling trimmed gains and prevented the December contract frombreaching chart resistance at 105.50-106.00 cents, they said.

Technically, after 105.50-106.00 cents, traders pegged December resistance at 108.00 cents and 110.00 cents. On the downside, support was seen at 102.25-102.00 cents, followed by 100.00 cents.

The market had little reaction to Sunday's presidential election in Brazil, the world's top coffee producer. President Fernando Henrique Cardoso on Monday appeared to have won re-election the first round of elections, with just enough votes to avoid a run-off.

Traders await the Brazil government's response to recent economic turmoil. Some traders had reckoned a devaluation the Brazil currency, the real, to be postponed until after the election. They said some producers may have held back some of their current crop coffee, which is priced in U.S. Dollars, to realise greater profits if there were a devaluation.

Brazil central bank President Gustavo Franco said on Monday he saw his country reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)on precautionary funding to help Brazil weather global Financial turmoil and ruled out any changes in Brazil's foreign exchange regime as part of a new fiscal package.

Franco stressed that the new economic programme would not involve a devaluation or any changes in Brazil's crawling-peg exchange rate policy.

While some traders were encouraged by the election results and a probable IMF package and said December coffee's ability to hold fairly steady above the key 100-cent level and reports of reduced crops in Central America could underpin the market, other traders said overall sentiment remained bearish.

Large 1998/99 crops in both Brazil and Colombia -- the world's two biggest producers -- should keep up the flow of coffee to consuming nations and put prices under pressure, they said.

In a bi-weekly report released last week Merrill Lynch analyst Judith Ganes said, "The bottom line for the market continues to be the flow of coffee to the roasters. We do not expect any major disruptions. The CentralAmerican crops could be slightly smaller and there is the usual talk of late crops but with the steady stream of coffee anticipated from Brazil and Colombia, we do not think roasters will have cause for alarm."

After Monday's close, CSCE reported certified coffee stocks were unchanged as of October 2, at 110,248 60-kg bags. No coffee was pending grading, the exchange said. Total coffee volume was estimated at 4,534 lots.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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