The depression intensified and moved in a westerly direction away from the Indian coast causing heavy downpour.This year the monsoon started receding from the extreme western end of Rajasthan six days behind schedule on September 7. The process was stalled for few days in the Barmer-Bikaner range. Meteorological experts say that the monsoon recession is slow and is still behind the scheduled dates. By October 1, the monsoon should have receded up to its southern limits at Pune-Bhopal-Lucknow range. But till September 30, the monsoon receded up to Vadodra-Bhopal-Allahabad range only. Mumbai and Pune still remained under monsoons.

As per scheduled date, themonsoons should recede up to the southern range of north Mangalore-Hyderabad-Gopalpur (Orissa) range by October 15 and by October 30 the monsoons should withdraw from the remaining parts of the country.

Even after monsoon recession, however, in October 2, deep layers of cloud mass was seen over Punjab, Haryana and west UP. Deep layers cloud was also visible over parts of southern peninsula and Andaman and Nicobar Islands on October 2.

In October 3, deep layers of cloud mass was seen over parts of east Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar plateau, Arunachal Pradesh, parts of southern peninsula and over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Experts at India Meteorological Department (IMD) has refuted the logic that the present spate of rains over several places in north India after the recession of monsoons are due to La Nina factors. They stated that till date there has been no one-to-one relationship of Indian monsoons either with El Nino or La Nina.

Monsoon forecast: Rain or thundershowers are likely to occur atmost places in Andaman and Nicobar Islands and at many places in south Konkan and Goa, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places in east Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar plains, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, north interior Karnataka and Rayalseema. Rains or thundershowers are also likely over at isolated places in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayam West Bengal, Sikkim and Telangana. Weather will remain mainly dry in the rest regions of the country.

Isolated heavy rains is likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu. Pondicherry, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

Water reservoir position: According to the reports maintained by the Central Water Commission (CWC), the total live storage in 63 major reservoirs in the country on September 18 was 92.38 TM Cum representing 74 per cent of live capacity at full reservoir level (FRL).The total live storage in major reservoirs in the country in the corresponding period of the previous year was 99.19 TM Cum representing 93 per cent of FRL. The average storage for the last 10 years is 96.15 TM Cum representing 96 per cent of FRL.

There are 28 projects having capacity more than 80 per cent of the design storage. Sixteen projects have more than 50 per cent to 80 per cent of design storage capacity. Nine projects have capacity of more than 50 per cent to 30 per cent to 50 per cent of design storage. Only 10projects have capacity up to 30 per cent of design storage. Out of 63 reservoirs, only 21 reservoirs storage capacity this year is less by 20 per cent or more than the average of the previous years. Out of 24 reservoirs with significant hydro-potential, there are only 15 reservoirs which has storage build up less than the average of the previous years. The storage capacity in this year in Narmada, Godavari and Cauvery is better than the average of the previous years.