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Tuesday, September 29, 1998

Correction inevitable despite strong bullish undertones 

K Seshadri  
September 28: Last week I had advised to book profits before it was too late. The advice proved its validity on Monday despite the beginning of the new week at the BSE.

The markets opened with great enthusiasm. But by the end of the day it was clear that there was no way the market could continue to climb on the back of the hefty gains posted towards the end of last week. The Sensex opened on a highly optimistic note at 3258 with a gain of 34 points over Friday's close of 3224. This itself was surprising considering that the bearish signal had already surfaced on Friday. On that day the market had risen to a high of 3267, but ended the week rather lame at 3224.

On Monday, following the opening on a bullish note, the market enthusiasm was sustained for a fair portion of the trading hours. The index posted a high of 3266, which was just a point short of the previous high of 3267. But post lunch, operators found it difficult to jack up prices further or even hold on to the price levels.

After stagnating at3255, the index headed straight down south during the last 70 minutes of trading, from 3255 levels and ended up to post a low of 3206. The day closed with the Sensex at 3207.

The correction could deepen on Tuesday judging from the position of the leading stocks in the Sensex family. Technically, correction is inevitable in the light of last week's robust gains. But the bullish trend should be considered still intact, as of now.

The 12-day exponential moving average is at 3086. As the Sensex slips it could find support at the level of 3190.

On the daily charts, the stochastic indicator is still in positive territory. Should the market weaken considerably in the next two sessions, the indicator could trigger a sell for the very short term. Those going short will have to be on the look out, for the market has the chance to find support quite close at hand. This is because the market trend is still bullish. The Sensex has a chance to buoy without too much slip.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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