The climatic conditions until now have been quite supportive ensuring a pest-free environment for the crop. The progress of the crop has been reported to be healthy in all major cotton-producing centres. Gujarat is heading towards a bumper crop this year while Punjab and Harayana also expect to harvest a bigger crop than last year's despite a fall in acreage.

The farmers are keeping their fingers crossed for a continuance of favourable climate till the time of harvest. After a widespread and heavy rainfall in August, the standing crop now needs a respite from rain and a dry spell with intermittent showers is welcome during September. Excessive moisture at this stage could invite an attack of pests, the traders say.

According to press reports, cotton belts in Punjab comprising Bhatinda, Faridkot,Ferozepur and Muktsar have experienced low rainfall which actually is good for cotton and its output is expected to exceed last year's figures although the area under cotton came down from 7.27 lakh hectares to about six lakh hectares this season.

In Haryana, cotton crop was badly affected by leaf curl virus last year. However, this year, the dry spell in early August followed by an active monsoon thereafter augured well for the crop which is expected to be around 15 lakh bales this season against 11 lakh bales during the last year.

Gujarat, where cotton sowing is reported to be 15 per cent higher, is likely to surpass last year's output of 43 lakh bales and may be around 46-47 lakh bales. Overall, India may end up with an output of around 170 lakh bales this season as against 153 lakh bales last year.

On the global front, demand for cotton is expected to outstrip cotton production. According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), world cotton production in the current season is expectedto be around 18.95 million tonnes as against an estimated demand for 19.49 million tonnes. The production of cotton in Argentina, Brazil, southern and eastern Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, China are expected to be lower leading to a drop in the global production. China's cotton crop is reported to be affected by the floods and is estimated to be lower at 4 million tonnes as compared to 4.3 million tonnes last year.

This would bring down the stocks to 8.99 million tonnes after four years of rising stocks. And the prices too are expected to firm up in the coming months according to the ICAC.