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Tuesday, September 8, 1998

Change in course 

 
The Congress Party's Panchmarhi session has confirmed the deeply ambivalent attitude of party members towards economic reforms. Several of them had attributed their defeat at the hustings to the reform programme. The economic agenda to be espoused for the November state elections will therefore be a reversal to the tried and tested `garibi hatao' platform. The return to socialist rhetoric has been tempered with the need to defend the liberalisation ushered in under Congress rule, but the overall drift of the resolution has been unmistakably populist.

If the masses had been really hurt by the reforms, they would have voted en masse for the left parties, which hasn't happened. Instead, the main gainer in the last elections was the BJP, which is not a socialist party. World Bank data show that poverty has declined. The other reason put forward for the change in course is the need for the Congress to woo the left. This does not sound convincing, particularly since the left seems in any case to be only toowilling to support the Congress.

There are several reasons why liberalisation is viewed with suspicion by the general public. One is the increase in income disparity, which has ocurred wherever liberalisation has taken place. The second is the restructuring of industry, which causes dislocation and hardship to workers. These are legitimate areas of concern, calling for honest responses. First and foremost, the people must be told the truth--that the present populist policies of high subsidies and high deficits are not sustainable. At the same time, measures must be put in place so that the pain of adjustment are minimised--these should include proper compensation to laid-off workers, and a national programme on the lines of Maharashtra's Employment Guarantee Scheme which should serve as a safety net. Policies must also concentrate in agriculture, where productivity can be increased substantially by irrigation, flood control, building cold storages and by exploiting the enormous untapped food processingpotential.

Most importantly, however, there is a need to go beyond the sterile debates of ideology, and focus on the main issue, which is one of promoting the highest sustainable rate of growth. In sectors which need to be liberalised to achieve that objective, liberalisation must take place immediately. That is the reason why foreign capital should be made welcome in infrastructure. On the other hand, there is no need to bother about areas which are not going to increase growth immediately. For instance, capital account convertibility, or liberalising the foreign exchange market, can very well be put off indefinitely. Politicians must realise that rapid, broad-based, labour-intensive growth will be the most popular policy.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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