Hong Kong, Sept 4: Last year, it was standing room only in the stock dealing room in a typical branch of the China and South Sea Bank. Retirees, students and housewives alike yelled ``buy, buy, buy'' as the curve tracking the Hang Seng Index went up, up, up.Today, such rooms are still crowded, but few people can be seen lining up to buy. Some are too nervous to jump into the market. Many more are busy counting their losses in it.
In money-conscious, gambling-mad Hong Kong, many people invest in property, and about 15 per cent of the adult population owns stocks, not through mutual funds, but through their own purchases.
While the percentage of stock ownership is lower than in the United States, the blue-chip Hang Seng Index is a territory-wide obsession in Hong Kong. In good times and bad, people are hooked.
Every day, hordes crowd interactive terminals at banks and internet providers flashing the latest market news. Others jam stock dealing rooms at retail banks and brokerages, waiting for hourswith clenched fists for the best moment to trade.
Last year, many people got caught up in the euphoria when the Hang Seng peaked at more than 16,000 points. Some borrowed heavily. Others used their student loans to get into the market.
There were plenty of success stories. But since then Hong Kong has been dragged full tilt into Asia's 14-month-old economic crisis. Last month, as the index approached 6,600, many were sorry they had ever got involved.
One of them is a 66-year-old woman, who made her living serving dim sum at a Chinese restaurant. In a territory with no social security system, she lost most of her life savings in the market, and is now too embarrassed to give her full name to a reporter or to say how much she lost.
``I don't even know what I bought,'' said the silver-haired woman, who identified herself as Mrs Mak.
``I just bought the stocks last year because everyone was buying and making money. Basically, I don't know anything about the market,'' she said as she checked out shareprices at the dealing room, clutching a plastic bag she uses as a purse.
Many families are now left scrambling for cash. Most refuse to sell their stocks at the bottom, preferring to sweat out the downturn and wait for the market to rebound. Many analysts think that will take them at least a year.
Meanwhile, interest rates remain high. That's the government's way of keeping its currency link with the US dollar intact. But it also means families are paying more for mortgages, even though property values have fallen and their apartments are now usually worth 10 per cent to 40 per cent less than they were.
According to one estimate, sharp falls in both the property and stock markets have chopped 4 trillion Hong Kong dollars (US dollars 516 billion) from Hong Kong's assets. That discourages spending and has helped push the territory into a recession.
The jobless rate of 4.8 per cent is at a 15-year high, and going higher. The economy shrank 5 per cent in the second quarter, and is expected to shrink atotal of 4 per cent this year. Suicides of badly indebted investors are a common newspaper staple.
Recently, to punish speculators who were betting that the market would go down, the government actively bought blue chips to drive the market up.
The two-week buying spree, which ended on Friday, pushed the index up 1,200 points by that day in a move that reassured many of the people standing around nursing losses on the stock market.
But economists warn that such government intervention is damaging Hong Kong's reputation as one of the freest economies, and driving real investors away. And chief executive Tung Chee-Hwa recently warned retail investors to avoid the volatile market.
``There are only two players in the market: the government and hedge funds,'' said George Chan, research analyst at Celestial Asa Securities.
``You've got to be crazy to buy anything in this kind of environment,'' said Joseph Hung, a 53-year-old government clerk, who has been investing in stocks for 20 years. His bifocals onhis forehead, he was squinting at the latest market figures on computer screens facing a busy street.
Outside of a star internet outlet in downtown Hong Kong, Hung engaged in a heated debate with Perry Ko, a 29-year-old owner of a jewelry workshop, over whether to keep playing the market.
``In the stock market, everyone wins over time,'' Ko insisted. ``The money's there. It's all timing.''
Hung, who has been buying stocks for 20 years, disagreed. ``No. No one ever wins because you always end up putting what you win back to the market,'' he said. ``But this is gambling, and Hong Kong people love to gamble.''
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.