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Saturday, September 5, 1998

Rally to continue, remain invested 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
The sentiment during this week has shown some improvement. Although on the weekly basis, high and low were lower against the previous week's respective positions, the Sensex has gained 67 points over the previous week's closing of 2908 points.

As expected, the credit goes to ITC. With the help of higher volumes, the cigarette giant has shown a rally of Rs 40 or more than six per cent during the week. It has not only contributed the most, an improvement on this counter has also helped the sentiment on other counters. In fact, on Friday, almost all the pivotals have shown an impressive improvement.

The Sensex has posted more or less higher bottom at 2850 points as compared to the 2839 level last month. Although the period between both these bottoms is very short, the move has certainly changed the market outlook, at least for the short-term.

Among the majors, the position of Hindustan Lever did improve but it was not supported by good volumes. In other words, it was more of sentiment driven movement.

Asfar as the position of Reliance and State Bank goes, the rally witnessed during the later half of the week appears to have caused by short-covering coupled with some investment buying at lower levels. The position of both these counters is expected to remain positive in the coming three days and the rally is expected to last for some more time. Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Petrol also fall into the same category where the short-covering is likely to result in a rally. Both these counters are set for a short-term rally.

However, the position of other two heavy-weights - Bhel and MTNL is comparatively better. The rally which is expected on these counters will be much stronger. In comparison, Bajaj Auto has not been as impressive.

Overall with the majors expected to remain firm, the Sensex will continue its uptrend. And this uptrend may last till the level of 3150 points or another 175 points. As such, traders should strictly avoid short-selling in the next couple of days. Stocks like ABB, Bhel, BSES,Corporation Bank, Essel Packaging, Madras Cement, Mahindra & Mahindra, Rhone Poulenc, Smithkline Beecham Consumers, TEC, TVS Suzuki and Telco are expected to remain firm. In fact, stocks like Madras Cement, Corporation Bank, Castrol and Bhel have given a fresh buy signals. The Aditya Birla group companies - Hindalco, Indian Rayon and Grasim are expected to show a rally. The position of NIIT, Sesa Goa and SKF Bearings however has worsened and may result in further fall.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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