It is not unnatural that the topic of financial sector development in India attracts debate. The consensus opinion among policy-makers and journalists appears to be that development banks (DBks) have not fulfiled their role as suppliers of long-term capital to the corporate sector. India is not alone in its resignation to the DBks' lack of performance which has been accepted in the developing world. The generally cited exceptions include ICICI, NAFINSA (Mexico), and BNDE (Brazil). Policy prescriptions have ranged from closure of these institutions to their transmutation into other corporate entities.However, these solutions are tantamount to executing the messenger for bearing unwanted news. In actual fact, DBks had been placed in political environments, not of their choice or making, which imposed severe restrictions on their operations. Foremost among these have been pressures to direct credit to politically favoured projects. The conventional wisdom motivating these actions is that a handful ofpoliticians and bureaucrats are more adept at assessing the investment needs of the economy than a free, unfettered capital market. Politicians and bureaucrats favour financial institutions, such as DBks as it is easy to extract seigniorage, whereas free, independent-minded securities markets are impervious to their influences.
DBks have also been handicapped by the imposition of officially mandated interest rate controls. Thus, there are upper bounds or limits on the interest rates that these institutions may charge on their investments. Adverse selection characterises their investment portfolios. On the other hand, DBks may not have access to funds at concessionary rates, with adverse effects on their cost of capital. These controls impose undue pressures on both sides of their balance sheets, thus affecting the very viability of DBks.
Studies conducted by the World Bank on the performances of DBks share certain common themes. First, Dbks should be liberated from the arbitrary imposition of directedcredit. Second, officially mandated interest rate controls should be eliminated so that DBks can operate in a market-driven interest rate environment. Finally, DBks should be permitted to diversify their activities into other related areas, such as leasing, investment banking activities, and portfolio management.
One of the suggestions being floated is that universal banks (UBks) are in general superior substitutes for DBks. There are several points to consider if UBks are in the Germanic mould. In this form, UBks are suppliers of long- term, short-term, as well as equity capital to the corporate sector. UBk directors serve on the boards of several corporations leading to a close network bound together by interlocking directorships. This arrangement raises the serious issue of objective corporate governance by UBks. These institutions are no longer free to perform their function of `delegated monitoring' effectively. Analogous organisational structures (in spirit if not in form) are seen in the Keiretsus ofJapan and the Chaebols of Korea.
The financial institutions at the nucleus of these organisations have not prevented adverse selection resulting in excessive and inefficient corporate investments to which the current financial problems of these two nations have been attributed in part. If they have not been part of the solution, clearly these UBks have been implicitly part of the problem.
Financial institutions, such as DBks or UBks (it is immaterial what we call them), given their expertise in evaluating complex projects and their potential for tapping diverse sources of capital, have a place in the financial sector of growth-oriented developing nations. However, the following caveat needs to be emphasised. These institutions need to operate within the ambit of, and hence subject to the discipline imposed by, a capital market. There is no place for an exclusive niche which segments these institutions from the rest of the financial market place. Our financial institutions would intermediate in thesecapital markets to function as delegated monitors of debt capital and effective overseers of equity capital. Their arms' length relationship with their corporate clients should ensure the observance of prudent corporate governance.
An issue raised frequently in discussion fora is whether India can rely on securities markets for its resource needs. More so than in many other developing nations, India has the institutional infrastructure to develop its securities markets. The necessary conditions for productive securities markets are;
A legal framework enunciating and enforcing the primacy of property rights. Institutional arrangements to provide full and proper disclosure with transparency. Accounting information relating to corporate activities conforming to generally accepted international principles. Technological infrastructure to facilitate flow of information to the market place.A related issue is whether Indian securities markets would be successful in meeting thecapitalisation needs of the corporate sector. Assuming an average growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the economy over the last 10-year horizon, a conservative estimate of 30 per cent of total output being held in the form of undeclared (`black') resources, and a reinvestment rate of 10 per cent, a quick back-of-the-envelope exercise reveals that the available undeclared resources should be at least $1,000 billion. Suitable incentive schemes to legitimise these resources with minimum term investments in either debt or equity instruments directly or through the financial institutions should provide the jump start for the capital markets.
In conclusion, financial institutions have a positive role in development of the financial sector in India. However, these institutions must be regarded as intrinsic elements, and not as separate segments, of the capital markets. It is equally important that these capital markets are permitted to perform their intermediation functions free of political and bureaucratic pressures.If these minimal conditions are met, financial sector development will lead India with continuous growth into the 21st century.
(The author is an associate professor with the American University in Washington DC)
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.