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Wednesday, September 2, 1998

Expect support at 2,797 points 

K Seshadri  
The Sensex lost 71 points on Tuesday to close at 2863. Developments overnight in the US markets as well as any positive developments in the Russian scenario are likely to influence the market direction on Wednesday. But if one were to look at technicals for clues, one should now look at a support at 2797. Traders should keep themselves open to the idea that should the market continue to be under pressure, 2797 might end up giving the much sought after support.

At the same time one should take note that on the monthly charts the index has now fallen below the 2890 mark, which was posted on 29 November, 1996. This is one long term step further in the south direction.

Now let us come back to the 2797 level. This is not too far down from the close of 2863. In my view one should not be too perturbed by the possibility of this further slip. The reason is that the current slide is happening due to shocks and it has the potential to recover as quick as it slips to more well established levels.

Readers wouldrecall that in June this year the market bounced up and down on alternate days. The current technical situation is very similar to that. Howevr, this is not to say that the world economic scenario is not undergoing any change or that it will not affect Indian fortunes. But let us stick to the technicals for the moment.

This is not the time, in my view, to worry about what would happen if the support at 2797 fails. The country's economic assessment does not warrant such a dire view. So one should well use the opportunity for any further slip to buy into attractive blue chips.

If you look through your recent data sheets you will realise that many scrips which went up recently have given away only part of the gains. That reflects the underlying strength of the market. The turn around in the market can now be expected any moment. At the time of signing off this column, the Dow Jones is reported to be recovering. Sensex recovery may be tested at 2797.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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