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Wednesday, August 26, 1998

La Nina seen gripping Asia well into next year 

Joyce Liu  
Singapore, Aug 25:La Nina has arrived in Asia sooner than expected, causing the floods in China, India and Bangladesh, a spokesman for the Meteorological Service of Singapore said on Tuesday.

The weather phenomenon, which followed the El Nino episode that seared much of Asia with drought last year, will cause heavy rainfall for much of the rest of 1998, the spokesman told Reuters by telephone.

"La Nina has been established and will continue to prevail through the rest of the year," he said.

The La Nina weather pattern, caused by abnormally cold water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, had not been expected to occur until the last quarter of 1998.

The wetter and cooler weather it brings is unlikely to ease until the second quarter of next year, the spokesman said.

La Nina, which means "the girl child" and is sometimes also known as "the cold tongue", often follows El Nino, which is the opposite weather phenomenon caused by abnormally warm waters in the Pacific Ocean.

"Starting May, we've seen a wetter weather condition in this region and we should continue to see above-normal rains in many parts of Asia in coming months," the meteorological service spokesman said.

In July and August, Singapore and many parts of Indonesia, including Sumatra, Borneo and Kalimantan, had above-normal rain, he said.

The La Nina phenomenon has brought easterly winds into Asia from the Pacific Ocean which do not usually occur at this time of year, he said.

For Singapore, the spokesman said, the above-normal rainfall would last until October.

Rainfall may then return to normal toward the end of the year, and increase again in the beginning of 1999, he said.

"Maybe around March next year Singapore will see normal weather conditions," he said.

La Nina, a swelling of cold water in the Pacific Ocean off the South American coast, has produced unusually wet weather along sections of the Pacific Rim this year.

Until the mid-1970s, La Nina years tended to alternate with and balance El Nino years. More recently, however, La Nina episodes have become less frequent.

"El Nino has given way to La Nina, and we noticed that the cold water is much cooler than expected this year," the spokesman said.

Central and southern China, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and the northern and eastern parts of India have seen a "typical but quite strong" southwest monsoon season this year, he said.

Torrential rains have caused floods in several Asian countries.

In China, floods have killed more than 2,000 people, displaced millions of peasants and touched the lives of almost a quarter of China's 1.2 billion people.

Bangladesh is struggling to survive its worst flooding in 10 years, and India's soldiers are battling rising flood waters which have left thousands of people marooned in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state.South Korea and Australia have also been hit by floods.

The meteorological service spokesman said China's torrential rains may go on until September or October.

Southern India might get more than its usual ration of rain and most of Southeast Asia should have normal to above-normal rains, he said.

"Based on studies in the past, the La Nina weather pattern should continue until the middle of next year, or the second quarter," he said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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