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Wednesday, August 26, 1998

Global meltdown poses nightmare scenario for United States 

REUTERS  
Washington, Aug 25: As US treasury secretary Robert Rubin enjoys a last week of summer vacation, a nightmare scenario is threatening to unfold for the global economy that could be beyond the reach of US policy makers. The financial crisis that started in Asia last year once looked manageable, but analysts warned on Monday it may turn into a global epidemic. Billions of dollars in international emergency aid have failed to contain the turmoil.

There is hardly an emerging market left that has been spared. Russian economy is crumbling fast, and now Latin America threatens to become the next victim. ``This is a serious global emergency,'' said Greg Mastel of the Economic Strategy Institute, a Washington-based think tank. ``It's foolish to think that this problem is going to go away overnight,'' he added.

Rubin has warned time and again that US prosperity and jobs, among the greatest achievements of the Clinton administration, could be at risk if Asia's economic sickness infected other emerging economies. The speed with which it is spreading around the globe has left US policy makers scrambling for new solutions. However, as they struggle to keep up with the crisis, officials are running out of fresh ideas. ``I don't think there's really much left that Washington can do,'' said Jay Bryson, international economist at First Union Corp. ``Nothing really sticks out that they haven't tried yet. We must recognize that at best we can make marginal changes,added Mastel. ``The bulk of the work must be done by these countries themselves,'' he said.

Washington has had its successes in preventing a financial meltdown. Huge rescue packages drawn up by the International Monetary Fund under the guidance of the United States helped some of the hardest-hit nations, notably Thailand and South Korea, regain a semblance of financial stability. Others have fared less well under the IMF regime, with political and economic turmoil in Indonesia bringing down the government of President Suharto. An IMF-led $23 billion bailout package for Russia, concluded a month ago, unraveled faster than Washington could have forecast even in its worst-case scenarios. What's more, the IMF's kitty has been all but emptied out, leaving the international community ill-prepared financially for whatever problem might spring up next. That next challenge may well be a renewed round of economic turmoil in Latin America. Last week, markets across the region were plummeted by fears that Venezuelawas about to devalue its currency, fanning rumors that Brazil might not be far behind.

The financial fire fighters at the US treasury department kept out of the limelight in recent weeks. ``We are watching things closely and we are in close touch with the G-7, the IMF, and our counterparts in major emerging markets,'' a senior treasury official told Reuters on Monday. ``Ultimately, what is important to a successful resolution of these problems is sustained the implementation of strong policies to restore confidence,'' the official added. Yet as Washington continues to lobby for economic reforms in the affected countries, analysts said, adding that years of misguided policies that helped to bring down many of the world's emerging markets could only be dealt with effectively at their roots. Russia, where president Boris Yeltsin has fired the entire government of prime minister Sergei Kiriyenko because he failed to address the country's worsening financial crisis that led to the devaluation of the rouble, may be the best example yet for a crisis in which Washington can do very little to help.``This is almost beyond the reach of policymakers in the G-7,'' said Thomas Gallagher, a political economist at Lehman Brothers in Washington. ``Just look at how impenetrable Russian politics are,'' he said. US president Bill Clinton will have a first-hand chance to gauge the situation in Russia when he travels to Moscow next month, accompanied by the Treasury's top trouble-shooter for international affairs, deputy secretary Lawrence Summers. A financial collapse in Russia alone would have little effect on the still-booming US economy. However, the Asian crisis already has caused the US trade deficit to soar, and all that combined with a collapse of wobbly Latin American economies might all of a sudden ring closer to home than most Americans would like. ``It's like hurricane Bonnie,'' said Mastel, referring to the storm threatening the eastern US seashore. ``These problems are not of our own making, and they are beyond our power to eliminate,'' he added.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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