The good news is that the Sensex has not retracted on the recovery that began last Friday. The index gained 27 points over to close at 2950. The bad news is that a majority of the Sensex scrips are looking very weak. And amongst those scrips that have advanced, the gain has been modest. The close of the NSE week on Tuesday might help in propping up the Sensex, due to short covering.The market made a good beginning by opening at 2928, five points above the previous close of 2923. But the high for the day was at 2958, a good 31 points down from the previous high of 2989. Even the low for the day was lower at 2900, some 19 points down from the previous low of 2919. But by closing at 2950 with a gain of 27 points over the previous close of 2923, the index has revealed the positive sentiments of the market players, though modest.
Even though the gain in the Sensex has been modest, the volumes at BSE speak of a dimensional change. The volume in advance has moved up stridently to Rs 639.8 crore, a four fold increase from Friday's Rs 153.16 crore.
Similarly the decline volume has shrunk to Rs 167 crore, a little over one fifth of the Rs 947 crore in decline on Friday. The number of scrips in advance has moved up from 509 to 568; those in decline has gone down to 358 from 647; those remaining at the same level has gone down from 168 to 132, accounting for insignificant volumes.
In terms of technical indicators, the daily stochastic continues to be in the positive territory, as also the RSI. While Associated Cement, BHEL, Colgate Palmolive, Hindustan Lever, HPCL, MTNL, Nestle, SBI (New), ITC and Ranbaxy Labs are showing signs of firming up, many other scrips are weak; in this list fall Bajaj Auto, BSES, Gujarat Ambuja, Hindalco, ICICI, IDBI, IPCL, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Sail, Telco and Tisco. One should be on the look out to see if the downtrend in these scrips could end.
It is difficult to perceive in the context of the overall market behaviour over the last few weeks, that there could be further serious slip in such a wide spectrum of scrips. The market is giving mixed signals, which are confusing for Tuesday. One would have to watch for clearer signals to emerge during the trading day.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.