That means towards September, if supply conditions were to remain otherwise unchanged, traders in Delhi had expected best quality groundnut prices to go up to Rs 2,800 per quintal -- that is an increase of Rs 300 per quintal as against the existing price of about Rs 2,500 per quintal for top variety. Rains shortfall faced by many groundnut producing states in 1997 has affected the crop position to the extent of 50 per cent, if information in trade circles in Delhi were to be correct.

To circumvent such speculations on price and production fronts, it is essential that reliable crop production forecast methods should be available to both the farming community, traders and marketing persons, according to Meher D Gadekar, an expert in agricultural crops.

Meher Gadekar by his work experience with ISRO, the Gujarat Cooperative Oilseeds Growers Federation (Grofed) and Mahafed, says that crop production forecasting using remote sensing-based data has useful applicability for the agricultural sector in the country. He is at present based in Bhopal's Actionaid India unit.

Groundnut crop production forecasting is done mainly by two methods: One is the conventional approach and the other is remote sensing data-based approach.

In the conventional approach, there are methods like crop acreage estimation, yield forecasts, weather observation, reading of biometrical characters (like plant health etc) and so on.

Unlike in the conventional approach, the remote sensing data-based approach refers to the process of gathering information about an object or process without coming into physical contact with the object. For instance, the information is gathered by way of images through aerial (aircraft/balloon etc) and satellite platforms. Remote sensing data coupled with collateral data regarding soil nature, productivity potential and trends are added on to the meteorological statistics comprise the remote sensing data-based approach for crop forecasting.

In essence, a lot of uncertainty affecting the operations of oilseed federations like Grofed and Mahafed or even agro-industrial operations could be reduced if remote sensing data-based approach is followed to obtain accurate crop production forecast, according to Gadekar.

If production forecast for states is available in general, there would be an objective basis for determining and declaring the price of groundnut. At present, the groundnut price, for instance, in Gujarat, is based on the Rajkot mill delivery price. The Rajkot figure may be subject to speculation or manipulation by the trade and may not be a true picture of the crop size.

If production forecast is available, by assuming the percentage of production to be procured, a procurement figure could also be estimated. Based on these two methods, the working capital requirement can also be estimated.

In this method the quantity of groundnut to be processed would be known thus paving the way for adequate processing arrangement and so on. Likewise, quantity of finished goods like edible oils and extractions to be produced by either Grofed or any other agency can be estimated and that would set the base for determining the selling price thereby eliminating the speculation aspect. Marketing staff also can be mobilised accordingly.

Moreover such scientific determination of various factors can act as a base to counter the claims of vested interests.