The recovery process gathered some more strength today with the Sensex closing at 3133, up 13 points from the previous close of 3120. But the index saw a serious dip to a low of 3062 in response to the slide in the South East Asian markets. However, the market recovered closing at 3133. The intra day high was at 3138.At several counters, as scrips dipped, it opened up a good opportunity for intra day trade. The market had been trying to stabilise for the previous two sessions, as such at the bottom. So enterprising punters took the opportunity to log in to scrips at the dip to gain handsomely during the day. Typical was Mahindra & Mahindra. The scrip opened low at Rs 136 only to close at Rs 146.80 and attracted a turnover of Rs 2.8 crore in contrast to the previous day's turnover of Rs 1.38 crores. Bajaj Auto oozed confidence once again at the current level by moving up to Rs 649.
Some good news is now trickling in after the rather dismal corporate performance. Rains are reported to be satisfactory. Theresponse to SBI's overseas bonds is expected to be good. If that materialises, several infrastructural projects would be able to take off the ground. Again the Prime Minister's new formula towards the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty indicates moving towards a workable solution to the stalemate. These measures could gradually restore market's confidence, which in due course will trigger a better inflow of FII portfolio investments. All these might have influenced market's thinking.
But unless the market moves out of the uncertain and unsure grey zone in which it is now trapped, future forecast would have to rely more on sentiment indicators than technical indicators. In any case, the daily stochastics on the Sensex chart has crossed its trigger line and indicated a buy. But for the uptrend to be confirmed, the index has to cross 3250. On the bottom side, since the index slipped below 3081, one should not shut one's eye to the level of 3027, which the index could still test. Market sentiment needs to be builtup for the upmove to be sustained.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.